Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, continues to make appeals – as yet to no avail – urging for green light from his allies to utilise long-distance, high-precision missiles like the British-invention Storm Shadows, French Scalp models or the US’s Atacms to precisely hit targets within Russia to curb Russia’s aerial attack abilities.
A Ukrainian-fired Storm Shadow aimed at an airbase situated 100km within Russian borders would take merely six minutes to reach and obliterate its target – a significantly quicker time compared to Ukraine’s drone fleet. Ukraine has successfully utilised such missiles in the region under Russian control, Crimea. Key targets like naval bases and air defence systems have been obliterated. In response, Russia has relocated bombing base locations outside of the Storm Shadows or Atacms’ reach to prevent similar events on Russian soil.
However, availability issues concerning the Storm Shadows and Scalps mean that even with a green light for cross-border assaults, delivering these weapons in large numbers would not be feasible for Kyiv. Nevertheless, Ukraine exhibited that a missile shortage does not hamper its offensive against Russia on Wednesday evening. Ukraine’s drones demolished a key Russian ammunition depot in Tver, 470km north of Ukraine’s borders.
An adamant Kyiv continues to press its demands, symbolic of how eager allied countries are in aiding Ukraine in its hour of need. Zelenskiy highlights that the US does not hesitate to arm Israel without any terms and conditions. He considers Putin’s military campaign to be an existential threat – now openly referred to as “war” – to Nato and US allies.
In what could be a warning bell of escalation of the conflict, Putin made it clear that retaliation would follow if Russia’s territories are made target with weapons supplied by the US and the UK- something he considers an act of war.
While the UK is up for testing Putin’s bold declaration, it is cautious about stepping out of line with the US. The governments of Washington and Berlin cite the potential to trigger Kremlin’s ire as reasons for delaying arms shipment to Ukraine. Nevertheless, Putin’s threatened reprisal has, to date, not been enacted upon. Adding complexity to the matter, Putin has foreignised the conflict further by receiving missiles from Iran and North Korea, along with undeclared aid from China.
Potent domestic politics, the forthcoming elections, and Ukraine-critical Donald Trump are factors currently preventing Biden from approving even the use of UK missiles. The Biden administration maintains that approval could incite Russia further and give weight to arguments that the US is over-extended in the conflict.
Approval to utilise western-made projectiles against Russian objectives isn’t an immediate solution granting Ukraine an assured upper hand. Likewise, the non-approval wouldn’t necessarily be catastrophic. Making this intricate choice, either granting or denying, represents an operation tangled up in politics and strategy. Furthermore, the timing of the decision could possibly foster or thwart opportunities for peace discussions.