Ellie Koepplinger, an activist currently employed at a digital start-up, got her start in political activism at 16 as an advisory board member for Yes Scotland. Yes Scotland, a campaign group, advocated for Scottish independence during the 2014 referendum vote, which took place a decade ago this month.
Koepplinger recalls her experience during a side meeting held at the Edinburgh-based annual conference of the Scottish National Party (SNP). She expressed the significance of attending monthly meetings with Nicola Sturgeon, the then deputy leader of SNP. She found it empowering, as a black young girl from Mary Hill in Glasgow, to be a part of this and believes this gave her a better understanding of the campaign’s priorities.
Steven Campbell, a young Scots for Independence (YSI) convener from an SNP-associated campaign group, had not yet graduated school during the time of the 2014 referendum. Although the Yes campaign fell short, with the No side winning by a 55 to 45 per cent margin, there was a brief period where the Yes side led the polls.
Campbell reminisces about the infusion of energy as the younger population became more politically engaged, driven by the fact that anyone aged 16 or older could vote in the referendum. Prior to this, Campbell had little interest in politics but found that people were suddenly interested in hearing the young people’s opinions, especially at the ‘Big, Big Debate’ event in Glasgow. This one-off political event from BBC, designed for young voters and held one week prior to the referendum, was an unparalleled experience. It was held before a live audience of approximately 7,500 16- and 17-year-old students. Here, Campbell says, young people were treated like adults and their opinions valued, quite contrary to their experiences in school, where adults usually overshadowed them.
In the wee Highland town of Alness, Emma Roddick began her journey in politics around the time of the independence vote at the tender age of 17. She engaged passionately in her political education, drawing insights from a diverse pool including young people, persons with disabilities, and ethnic minorities. The politics she fell in love with resonated with her because of the diversity of voices it encompassed. When she eventually stepped into the political arena, she anticipated a similar experience.
However, following her election to the Scottish parliament seven years later, she lamented the loss of the spirit the Scottish National Party (SNP) embodied during the 2014 movement. She admitted her disenchantment, noting that the path back to those glory days was steep, even within the SNP.
The SNP’s hopes of independence seem to be dwindling after a disappointing turn of events. Its unsuccessful bid for a new independence referendum and its defeat in the UK general election in July, where it saw a drastic reduction of its 48 Westminster seats to nine, doused its earlier enthusiasm. The election was marked by a surge in support for the Labour Party.
One of the SNP’s distinguishing traits post-2014 was its youthful dynamism and activism. Many young supporters were drawn to it due to the promise of independence and the fight for transgender rights among other issues. This energy seems to have waned significantly over time.
The SNP’s conference in Edinburgh the previous weekend painted a picture of its changed state. An estimated 1,500 party members were in attendance, a contrast from the mass turnout during the days when the former First Minister Sturgeon was at the helm. The conference featured a sprinkling of young activists, but noticeably lacked the vibrant youth energy of past years.
The attendees at the conference were predominantly older, more traditional party members whose viewpoints often differed from those of the progressive younger members. Members of the older demographic, optimistically hopeful for independence, sass that their expectations of it becoming a reality very soon are low.
An aging SNP activist from Moray’s Nairnshire branch, James Grant, shares his optimism with a twinkle in his eye. Formerly a Tory supporter, he remains confident that there is still the possibility of a referendum during his lifetime, possibly within the next few years.
Recalling a historic football match between England and Scotland in 1961, Grant amusingly draws on the narrative to emphasise his conviction that no cause is ever truly lost. He narrated how Scotland was beaten 9-3 by England at Wembley; a match best remembered for the defeat circling around the poor performance of Scottish keeper, Frank Haffey. This match also became infamous for an English quip about Scottish goalkeepers “What’s the time? It’s nearly 10 past Haffey”.
However, Grant pointed out that, two years later, the next game saw Scottish star player Jim Baxter shine as he led his 10-man team to a 2-1 victory at Wembley, thus cementing his place in Scottish football legend. “Cases like these serve as a reminder that situations can always be turned around,” Grant remarked with a jovial grin etched across his face, keeping hope alive.
He also broached a serious topic, pondering if the party’s history of focusing on “culture war” elements that typically attract younger supporters, such as transgender rights, has impacted it negatively. Grant explained, “I’m actually a staunch advocate of transgender rights. However, I suspect that this argument might have repelled certain potential SNP followers.”
In recent times, poll data shows a noticeable reduction in SNP supporter numbers in Scotland, with figures dropping to less than 30 per cent in some polls — a stark contrast to its heyday when it soared in the 40s.
However, despite the wave of controversies that has hit SNP over the past year involving financial scams, leadership conflicts, election loss and an impending financial crisis, support for independence remains unswayed. The SNP-led Scottish government might have to undertake slashing £600 million (€712 million) from its next budget to keep the balance.
The majority of polls suggest that the number of voters who continue to back independence is quite steady, at roughly 47 or 48 per cent. Several SNP activists who were in Edinburgh last week appeared content to round this figure to a balanced 50-50 chance.
Seamus Logan, a newly appointed SNP MP for Westminster originally from Dunloy in Co Antrim, confirmed that their central dream of Scotland’s independence is still well and truly alive. “Independence still has the backing of 50 per cent of the voters. However, we can’t ignore the harsh realities. We now face a £22 billion funding deficit which the UK government says we need to address,” Logan concluded, citing the vast financial discrepancy the Labour Party has proposed to settle through spending reductions.
Scotland’s budget could potentially see substantial repercussions, a point critics of the SNP often highlight alongside allegations of excessive spending. It’s notable that healthcare professionals in Scotland receive the highest salaries within the UK. Despite the appeal of independence to almost half of the Scottish voters, surveys reveal that public services and economic stability currently outrank it in terms of urgency.
Richard Thomson, a former SNP MP who failed to maintain his seat in Scotland’s northeastern region in the recent Westminster election, believes that the SNP’s focus has been too much on achieving independence – the methods and procedures, be it via a referendum, a legal conflict with the UK government, a “de facto referendum” through an election, or any alternative means of exiting the UK.
According to Thomson, advocates of independence should refocus on the reasons behind independence, not just the mechanisms for achieving it. The SNP leadership appears to be in harmony with the need for a shift back towards a persuasive approach. As per Thomson, independence will naturally follow if there is sufficient backing.
However, among the SNP’s younger members, who are affiliated with the independence movement, there seems to be a sense of neglect from the senior party members. For instance, the YSI expressed that it gets no monetary backing from the SNP.
Roddick appears doubtful about how seriously her ideas are considered by mature SNP politicians at Holyrood, implying that they often dismiss her contributions. Roddick, Koepplinger, and Campbell all acknowledge pessimist sentiments among young Scots favouring independence, due to various socio-economic issues. Both Roddick and Campbell emphasize that housing should be prioritized by the Scottish government, not independence.
Furthermore, they propose that the youth wing of the movement appears to have lost its spark. Many young people believe that independence is incessantly talked about by the SNP, but without any real possibility of actualizing it, according to Roddick. “There’s a need to re-energise the cause,” she argues.