Chinese head of state, Xi Jinping, is scheduled to embark on his inaugural European visit in five years, starting in Paris on Sunday. This comes amidst a tense atmosphere surrounding China’s industrial strategy and their stance on Russia’s attack against Ukraine. The packed five-day itinerary includes stopovers in Serbia and Hungary, both of whom maintain closer ties with China compared to the rest of the European community.
Monday will witness a pivotal political gathering featuring Xi, French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron and President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Debates are anticipated to centre around the European alarm over the overproduction in Chinese industries, especially in the sphere of solar panels, electric transport and numerous other eco-friendly tech commodities.
The Chinese premier has been steering investment from standard areas of growth such as construction, redirecting it towards what he coins as “new productive forces”. This approach has resulted in noteworthy support, both directly and indirectly, for industries like electric transport, where China now spearheads global advancement.
Macron and Von der Leyen are advocating for a strong reaction to what they perceive as a threat on European manufacturers through an influx of inexpensive but superior imports from China. However, this stance has been confronted by German Premier Olaf Scholz, who displayed a more placatory attitude on the matter during his previous meet with Xi in Beijing.
Large-scale manufacturing facilities for several German automotive firms are situated in China, which also serves as a crucial market for them. Concerns persist that any EU restrictions on Chinese electric vehicles could trigger retaliation that can detrimentally affect their business operations.
While it is clear that the conflict over industrial affairs between China and the EU is complex, both parties boast considerable experience in trade negotiations. Macron further pointed out this week that China and the US are on par in their resistance to international trade.
The French premier maintains that Europe is considerably more receptive than the US or China, emphasising shared respect in trade dealings with China, but with a skew towards defending European interests while also securing national safety. Macron stands by the investigations launched by the European Commission into electric transport, photovoltaics and wind power sectors.
Relations between China and the EU have been significantly strained over China’s support for Russia post the February 2022 Ukraine invasion. Although China remains officially indifferent towards the conflict and does not supply armaments to Moscow, it does extend diplomatic and financial assistance.
Later this month, President Xi of China is scheduled to welcome his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Beijing. This comes after a proclamation of an unrestricted friendship was made over two years ago. While China does not necessarily need Russia to triumph in the war, Xi would not want the dispute to conclude in a manner that undermines Russia.
In a discussion with the Economist, President Macron expressed his desire to have China’s support in a renewed effort against nuclear proliferation. It is expected that Xi would show favor towards such an initiative, and would support any sign of Europe demonstrating strategic autonomy from the United States.
In his upcoming trip to Hungary, Xi hopes to bolster his bond with Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Xi’s goal is to persuade Orban to voice opposition within the EU against economic sanctions on China. China’s electric vehicle firm, BYD, has recently broadened its Hungarian operations to not only produce trucks but also passenger cars.
His itinerary to Serbia will align with the 25-year commemoration of NATO’s 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, which unfortunately claimed the lives of three journalists. While the US expressed regret and claimed the five bombs were mistakenly dropped, a probe by the Observer and Denmark’s daily Politiken deduced it was intentional.
During this visit, it is highly likely that Xi will use this event to criticize what he perceives as ‘bloc politics’. He also aims to paint NATO as a belligerent entity, a sentiment commonly echoed in much of the Global South.