In a remarkable turn of events, Willie Mullins stands to secure a historic hundredth victory at the Cheltenham festival through Galopin Des Champs at Friday’s 100th Gold Cup. However, chances of this eventuality seem slim before even reaching Friday.
Mullins, despite an already illustrious record, heads to the paramount week of the racing year in an extraordinarily influential position. He has up to 80 horses running, with possible favourites in 13 out of the 28 available races.
While Galopin is deemed as a strong contender to hold onto his Gold Cup, his chances seem relatively mild compared to those of State Man in Tuesday’s Unibet Champion Hurdle. Additionally, El Fabiolo has quite favourable odds in the competition for the festival’s other ‘Triple Crown’ event – the Champion Chase.
Anticipated novices like Ballyburn and Fact To File will test their burgeoning reputations come Wednesday, as Lossiemouth contends with State Man for the title of Tuesday ‘banker’ in the Close Bros Mares Hurdle.
Mullins has an impressive 20-strong team scheduled for the festival’s opening day, with his odds at a mere 6-4 to surpass his own record of 10 victories in a single week from 2022.
About the Cheltenham’s Anglo-Irish rivalry, Mullins’ odds of 4-6 to overpower the home team single-handedly reflect how obsolete it has become. Some predict an unprecedented festival ‘greenwash’ as the record of 23 Irish-trained winners from 2021 is under imminent threat.
Achieving such dominance by any other ‘Team Ireland’ context would sound unbelievable, but with Mullins — a figurehead as captain, coach, chairman, and unrivaled champion — it seems well within reach.
Though Gordon Elliott’s consecutive awards as the top festival trainer in 2017 and 2018 might have indicated a shift in power, that impression has long since been dispelled. At this festival, Elliott is merely three victories shy of matching the 40 victories of Englishman Fulke Walwyn, a feat that took him four decades to accomplish. Elliott’s journey began in 2011.
A prominent figure is accomplishing extraordinary feats, feats which would, in any other epoch, be deemed entirely dominant. Ten competitors hailing from his camp are participating on Tuesday, among which could be the principal contender to the title held by State Man in Irish Point. However, this figure, Mullins, has twice as many competitors. Certain institutions view Mullins’s contestants as favoured victors for the lion’s share of Tuesday’s seven races. A comparable number of races are expected to occur on Wednesday.
To those challenging him, this week feels akin to the struggle of propelling water uphill. Adding to their challenges, Mullins’s main overseas nemesis, Nicky Henderson, approaches the tournament with a seemingly mishap-prone team. While they haven’t been performing terribly in recent weeks, they haven’t demonstrated the spirited dynamism that has garnered Mullins’s squad a success rate of 41% over the same span.
The fact that Constitution Hill will not participate in the Champion Hurdle is a blow to Henderson and, more broadly, to his fellow countrymen. This withdrawal highlights the arduous task ahead for champion trainer Paul Nicholls, Mullins’s English colleague, as he only has one participant kicking off on Tuesday. Nicholls aims to grab a couple of victories to hit his festival milestone of 50 – a milestone that pales in comparison to Mullins’s towering stature.
Granted, the Cheltenham Festival is notorious for penalising presumptiveness. It may just happen that Henderson’s team could flourish at the crucial juncture. Notably, Henderson, with 73 festival wins, sits second in the historic standings, proving him a master in his own right. Mullins could face a setback. But, objectively, betting your fortune on such an unforeseen turn seems risky.
Critics argue this one-sided dominance might be detrimental to the sport and discussions concerning this will likely intensify in the coming days.
The thrill of the festival from the Irish viewpoint has traditionally centred around the opportunity to challenge the English on their home turf, typically while in the underdog position. However, the current imbalance in the competitiveness may call for necessary adaptations. While there remains sufficient novelty to keep many amused at the probable landslide victory, it’s in the interest of none for this uneven dominance to be a perpetual situation.
The 73 festival victories in JP McManus’s ownership chronicles span across Ireland and the UK, including a handful from France, exemplifying the interconnectedness of jump racing. Notable is the fact that no Irish horse bagged a win at Cheltenham 35 years ago, and similar outcomes today would still be unfavourable.
In the impending festival, the celebrated colours of McManus will be exhibited by Henderson’s Jeriko Du Reponent and Mystical Power, which is one of Mullins’s six contenders participating in the festival opener, The Sky Bet Supreme Novice Hurdle.
Mystical Power, the impressively-bred offspring of Galileo and Annie Power, being jointly owned by John Magnier and Rich Ricci, underscores the festival’s growing exclusivity. While the surprise winners were once an oddity, they have become even more scarce exceptions to the age-old norm that money generally prevails.
Ricci’s Lossiemouth has good prospects, although Gaelic Warrior seems less suited for the Arkle, as he favours jumping to his right. His stablemate Hunter’s Yarn might seize this opportunity. Corbetts Cross’ peculiarities, such as leaving the course in last year’s festival, do not enhance his chances against Embassy Gardens in the concluding race.
This year’s National Hunt Chase will be run in honour of the late Maureen Mullins, who passed away at the age of 94 last month. A victory for her son and grandson would be fitting at this Cheltenham festival.
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