Despite being smack in the middle of summer, it’s surprisingly brisk outside. Just prior to the solstice, cooler temperatures are being ushered in thanks to an air current from the poles, making the season feel quite cold. This shift in weather is stark when compared to June 2023, when Ireland’s weather service, Met Éireann, logged the highest June temperature on record – a sizzling 28.8 degrees in Oak Park, Co Carlow on June 13th.
In contrast, the average temperatures from the start of June to the 15th this year in Dublin’s Phoenix Park were 12.5 degrees, nearly a degree lower than those of May. What’s worse is that even though there are intermittent moments of warmth – such as a brief one expected later this week when warmer air from the southwest disrupts the cold, inching temperatures to around 20 degrees – there’s no indication of a significant warm spell anytime soon.
Weather specialist Joanna Donnelly from Met Éireann explained that our weather is determined by the jet stream, which is a huge current of air, roughly 9,140 metres high, created when cool Arctic air and warm tropical air collide. However, the jet stream isn’t a straight line; it has bends and kinks. Ms Donnelly explained that a jet stream located to the north of us would be more preferable for those craving sunshine.
At present, however, the jet stream is to our south, curving from the south of Spain to Denmark. Any area above this curved stream gets the brunt of cold Arctic air, whilst regions below enjoy the influence of warmer tropical air. As such, the Mediterranean regions are currently enjoying warmer conditions, while Ireland is feeling the frosty impact of being situated on the cooler side.
Ms Donnelly suggested that Wednesday would offer some fine weather but quickly dampened hopes by saying, “there is no indication of any extended period of fine weather.” The expected good weather on Wednesday is due to a warmer airflow from the southwest repelling the polar air. The jet stream will shift a bit to the north of us, causing temperatures to climb to about 22 degrees around Wednesday or Thursday.
However, the long-term forecast isn’t exactly bright. Donnelly stated that reliable predictions by Met Éireann extend up to ten days in calm conditions, but drop to about five days in volatile weather conditions.
“The position of the jet stream could potentially shift; however, there’s no way to force it to do so,” she pointed out. Ms Donnelly emphasised that for a sustained period of pleasant weather, it is necessary for the jet stream to relocate north of our location and remain there. “An enduring high-pressure period, or what we refer to as an omega block, can be accomplished if the loops become stationary. That’s what needs to occur,” she stated.