Putin’s intentions, I suspect, extend well beyond Ukraine. Our conflict isn’t confined to Ukrainian soil; it’s unfolding in our waters and through physical and cyber bustles. The Ukrainian citizens are battling, laying down their lives for principles fundamental to Europe, such as democracy, freedom, and the rule of law. The very least we owe them is supply of tools for defending their nation and their homes, and to expedite EU accession talks.
This impassioned declaration was made by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, this week, at the European People’s Party Congress, effectively, a pre-election gathering for Fine Gael’s political group, situating Ireland in line with the common European perspective regarding the Ukrainian conflict and the menace Russia poses to the EU.
Yet, while Ireland is adept at playing the international diplomacy game, domestically no tangible shift has been recorded concerning its defence attitude. Defending Ireland is relegated to others, all while we persist in moralising about peace and neutrality virtues, a hypocrisy increasingly called out abroad.
Recently, I engaged extensively with two senior government officials on this matter, both highly influential at the EU level. Their message was consistent: the EU is gearing up for conflict.
Speaking at the EPP’s Bucharest event, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, outlined the EU’s potential course without mincing words: “We must be swift in our actions. The spectre of war might not be imminent, but neither is it inconceivable. The chances of war should neither be amplified nor downplayed, but must be prepared for… This equates to enhancing our defence industrial prowess within the next five years.”
The Von der Leyen address is the most recent indicator of a monumental shift in EU perspectives and priorities. Given Ireland’s fundamental EU involvement is critical to its foreign and economic policy, this carries significant implications for Ireland. This remains notably unacknowledged, as if somehow unrelated to us. Nevertheless, it definitely is.
Over the past fortnight, I have had extensive conversations with two senior government officials, both heavily involved at the EU level. Their message was consistent: the EU is gearing up for a potential conflict. Meanwhile, we seem to be cruising along nonchalantly, unwilling to face the reality but happy to let others protect us while we ponder how to spend our massive fiscal surpluses. They employed the term “disconnect” repeatedly, which seems fitting.
The steps being taken by the EU and its member countries are not veiled in secrecy. They are clearly communicating these moves to their constituents, understanding that fiscal resources used to bolster their defence capabilities are funds that can’t be allocated elsewhere, such as public amenities or tax reductions.
Earlier this week, the Commission revealed its strategy to transition Europe’s defence industry to what essentially equates to a war-readiness position, enhancing the production of munitions for EU and Ukraine’s defence expeditiously and proficiently. This shift will be gradual, but the political determination and the necessary funds are in place.
As noted by Derek Scally in the In the News podcast alongside Sorcha Pollak, Germany’s government has wholly altered its defence strategy and is now openly preparing for potential hostilities to prevent them. Boris Pistorius, the defence minister of Germany, has labelled this strategy as “kriegstüchtig”. In his words, “It’s about being war-ready to prevent going to war.”
Among the EU’s Central and Eastern European member countries, the matter brings with it an urgency and threat not grasped here. Poland, Finland, the Baltic Republics and others are recognising the danger they perceive from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
Assuming Putin doesn’t suffer a defeat in Ukraine – a likelihood that has grown compared to a year ago – there is a genuine, justified anxiety that he may challenge NATO’s collective defence contract with an assault on one of these nations.
Ukraine’s foreign minister has declared: “The era of neutrality is over, as well as the era of peace in Europe.”
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas recently alerted that a significant military risk from Kremlin to the Baltics might emerge within a three to five years timeframe, once it regains its strength post Ukraine conflict. She urged her counterparts in EU and NATO to expedite their rearmament process.
There is growing concern over the prospect of another attack by Russia, particularly if Donald Trump captures the upcoming November elections. Trump has previously shaken the foundation of NATO by questioning the commitment of the United States towards the protection of its members against Russia. This combined sense of an empowered Russia, willing to exhibit military aggression, along with the potential shift of the U.S. away from its historical guarantees of European security, is driving the EU’s defensive transformation.
Considering Ireland’s position in this scenario, despite the declaration of substantial investment in the Defence Forces and deliberations on neutrality from the previous year, both the speed and scale of intended objectives appear unimpressive. The lack of defence measures for Ireland’s undersea cables, airspace and territorial waters is notable. Meanwhile, NATO provides securities that are otherwise absent. Ireland’s military expenditure is set to rise to €1.5 billion annually by 2028. However, this falls short of the mandatory 2 per cent of GDP that NATO members must commit. Hence, the concept of Ireland’s NATO membership, favored by the pro-neutrality proponents, is laughable.
Meanwhile, in a bold move, the Government nominated Lieut Gen Seán Clancy, the Defence Forces’ Chief of Staff, to lead the EU’s highest military body, the Military Committee. This demonstrates Ireland’s audacious strides in these matters.