Last Friday at the Alliance Party conference in Belfast, the Tánaiste Micheál Martin had a speaking engagement, a role sanctioned by the Department of Foreign Affairs. This alone was significant, let alone the content of his speech which vividly echoed Alliance’s stance on Stormont reform. Despite this, an academic survey released at the same event drew more attention. It showed a substantial number of Alliance members might support a united Ireland, a topic that sat neatly within the purview of the Tánaiste given his invitation to the conference. He spent the second half of his speech discussing the Shared Island initiative.
However, Martin’s participation at the event was not without controversy. Former Fianna Fáil adviser Derek Mooney charged him with being two-faced, accusing him of addressing Alliance while his party was in alliance with the SDLP. Mooney further criticised Mártin for failing to push for a united Ireland at the conference.
However, it’s worth noting that the SDLP ended their three-year association with Fianna Fáil in 2022, excluding Martin from the process. Before that controversy reached a boiling point, the SDLP had been known to court Fianna Fáil. Notably, when Labour’s Eamon Gilmore held the post of tánaiste a decade ago, he was a regular attendee at their conferences.
Therefore, Martin’s decision to speak at the Alliance event certainly gives off the impression that Dublin’s political establishment is ready to move forward. This attitude is not entirely new – Fine Gael had earlier made similar overtures. Back in 2019, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar spoke at an Alliance dinner, while emphasising that this within the framework of engaging with all Stormont parties. Despite a shift to the left by the new generation within the Alliance, they have historically been comfortable around Fine Gael.
Martin’s speech on Stormont reform was notable for its depth and specificity, standing out from the typical rhetoric across borders and parties. His reform propositions included halting the power of larger parties to disrupt Stormont and veto Executive decisions, overhauling the Assembly’s petition of concern veto system, swapping cross-community voting with a weighted majority mechanism, reverting the changes made to the St Andrews Agreement on the selection of first and deputy first ministers, and suggesting altering their titles to joint first ministers, which he believes is a more accurate description.
Martin emphasised that all political parties and both Governments must participate in the reform process, making a pointed remark that the Belfast Agreement paves the way for such a process. He cast these suggestions within the context of an expanding centre ground, needing a modernisation of the pact’s conventional unionist and nationalist assumptions.
Regrettably, it seems that expansion has topped at around 15%, falling noticeably short of the often-mentioned 20% when discussing the centre ground. The Northern Ireland Greens’ virtual extinction, a consequence of a misguided 2019 electoral pact, has essentially shrunk the nonaligned bloc to just the Alliance. Naturally, this is likely to result in stagnation.
However, the Alliance still surpasses the SDLP in size, boasting 50% more voters and over double the Assembly seats. Their standing seems firm as the North’s third party, an endorsement seemingly supported by the Tánaiste. After wavering over Stormont reform for several years, the SDLP has warmed up to the matter, making attempts to pioneer it, a space formerly occupied by the Alliance alone.
Due to its decline, the SDLP finds itself in opposition. They utilized their inaugural “opposition day” in the Assembly this Monday to challenge Sinn Féin and the DUP on reform. Martin confirming Alliance’s command of the issue merely three days prior was ill-timed, despite potentially being unplanned.
Critics of the Shared Ireland Initiative from the nationalist camp possibly view it as counter to a unified Ireland initiative. They may also perceive collaboration with the Alliance in a similar vein, especially if it appears to be at the expense of the SDLP. The process of Stormont reform is essentially about securing Northern Ireland, which could be seen as an attempt to preserve the existing situation.
If the idea behind sharing islands is a lengthy process towards unification, as is commonly suspected by many who support the union, nationalists would be wise to engage with Alliance. Naomi Long’s party possesses the sway in Northern Ireland, as the decision to hold a Border Poll, as well as its results, rest in the hands of its members and fans. The Ireland’s Future campaign’s dismissive attitude towards reconciliation and unsettling post-agreement urge for a Border poll, driven by international influence, likely won’t impress them. Martin’s methodology appears to be a more rational choice. Instead of delivering a sermon to the converted, isn’t it more strategic to speak to a crowd that remains undecided?