Sinn Féin’s political plight has reached its peak, with the firm set to experience its lowest electoral performance since it became a notable player in politics on this side of the border more than twenty years ago. The party’s victory over its dismal 2019 showing is undeniable, but this doesn’t conceal the catastrophe’s full scope. The party lead, Mary Lou McDonald, acknowledged their failure at the RDS, vowing that their time will come, despite the evident challenge to her leadership.
In the run-up to the election, Sinn Féin loyalists held out hope that the polls were inaccurate. Turned out they were, but not in their favour; the polls had excessively rated Sinn Féin’s backing. This implies that the party’s support fell dramatically as the campaign trail progressed. This shocking setback pushes the party to regroup and prepare for the impending general elections – an event likely rushed by the unfolding results.
Subsequent to the last general election, Sinn Féin reduced its voting demographic by circa a quarter of a million, with an equal number or more projected to have changed their voting decision over recent years, switching from supporting Sinn Féin. The reason behind this remains uncertain.
An evident explanation indicates a mismatch between Sinn Féin’s stance on migration and its nationalist supporters, who are traditionally less open to migration. This discrepancy, especially considering the party line is almost indistinguishable from the government’s, has certainly contributed to the drop in support. Nonetheless, the dip in polls pre-dates the emergence of migration as a contentious issue, indicating that there’s more to Sinn Féin’s decline than meets the eye.
With the poor local election results, the Sinn Féin leader voices her disappointment, admitting, “I regret we didn’t perform stronger.”
Over the past year and a half, a wave of political blunders and disputes has fused with the decline of Sinn Féin in the surveys. Jonathan Dowdall, previously a councillor and supporter of Sinn Féin, including McDonald’s, endured a painfully humiliating court trial. There was a flurry of legal actions launched by party individuals, inclusive of McDonald, against media and political adversaries. Confusing policy fluctuations, such as the bill on hate crime or hate speech have been evident.
Sinn Féin’s maladroit handling of expressing no confidence in Justice Minister Helen McEntee in response to the disorder in Dublin was also noted. Proposals were made in last December to curb Dublin’s housing prices to an average of €300,000. However, after enduring repeated ridicule in the Dáil over several months, this was rectified last week to suggest that this price point would reflect homes within an affordable housing scheme. Sinn Féin also backed the government’s ill-fated referendum proposals and pledged to stage another voting if the original ones were defeated.
Regardless of your personal opinions on these issues, the list is substantial.
More significantly, Sinn Féin failed to seize the chance that it had when it took up the call for change in 2020. Rather than clarify how the proposed changes would enhance people’s lives, which would have secured the backing of voters curious about the party, Sinn Féin managed to distance the supporters who desired radical change. This failure was noted when it tried to appease its more recent supporters by making sure that the changes implemented would not interfere with the aspects they liked about the country. Pearse Doherty’s trip to London to reassure Davy stockbrokers’ clients is an example of this. These actions may seem like preparedness for governance at one level, but to those who want radical change, they come across as a betrayal. Balancing these two stances is not impossible, but it is certainly challenging.
McDonald has demonstrated her prowess as a change-seeking outsider. However, the subsequent stage of opposition and readiness for governance, involving the credibility of a prospective taoiseach, has proven to be more complex. The question now is, how does she recover from here?
Certainly, they have achieved it in the past, but it seems that embracing a straightforward, traditional method might be a more probable course of action. During her dialogue with Claire Byrne on RTÉ radio last week, McDonald faintly suggested this, mentioning the Galway tent and brown envelopes. This might be a successful tactic, but one must say it gives an outdated feel for a political audience that has undoubtedly advanced. Moreover, highlighting previous flaws could be considered a pretty hazardous move for Sinn Féin. The reality is, McDonald finds herself in a tough predicament without an easy escape. The challenge her party is facing is indeed formidable.