In the current political landscape, two significant shifts in public approval have taken place since the previous general election. The ascent and subsequent decline of Sinn Féin is notable. With local and European elections looming and a general election not more than 10 months away, the party is grappling with a decrease in backing. The reasons behind this drop, as well as its effect on the party’s chances of gaining power, are both worth investigating.
Sinn Féin’s victory in the 2020 general election, in which it secured the lion’s share of votes, was a shock to both the party and its rivals. Just eight months before, the party had struggled monstrously in the local and European elections, losing half of its council seats and two MEPs.
The post-2020 election period was marked by an unexpected, intense wave of support for Sinn Féin which, at one period, cast an impression of the party leading the next government as something close to a certainty. To quantify this, Sinn Féin’s votes in the 2019 local elections were under 10 per cent. However, this spiked to almost 25 per cent in the following year’s general election.
The rising polling averages were bolstered by a blend of traditional working-class supporters and younger middle-class followers, who were appealed by the party’s left-populist and forward-thinking narratives. The averages were steadily in the mid-30s.
However, a transformation started to take shape after that, culminating in dwindling numbers. This development sped up over the course of 2023. The most recent poll in February had Sinn Féin at 28 per cent; a poll just last month saw that number diminish to 25 per cent. The party has essentially relinquished all the progress made since the previous election.
Despite downplaying the polls and their focus on “change”, there is notable apprehension within the party. With good reason too – even the most assured politician can’t disregard public opinion. So, what’s causing the dip in Sinn Féin’s popularity? And how does the party plan to rectify the situation?
The initial rise of Sinn Féin correlated heavily with the increasing prominence of the housing crisis in Irish political discourse, according to the majority of observers, both within and outside the party. Many attribute this surge in Sinn Féin’s popularity following the 2020 election to the notable performance of the party’s housing spokesperson, Eoin Ó Broin.
Charismatic, competent, and frequently appearing in media outlets, Ó Broin delivered a straightforward message that struck a chord with a rising population feeling excluded from the housing market and losing hope of ever owning or even residing in their own homes. Ó Broin’s argument was that, in the immediate-term, the government should provide aid to renters and, in the middle-term, should focus on ramping up the construction of affordable and social housing.
According to Ó Broin, the housing market was failing the younger generations, and he laid the blame on the government. However, Sinn Féin’s period of popularity growth wasn’t solely defined by the housing issue. The party emerged as the primary opposition, with Mary Lou McDonald leading the party in parliament. Sinn Féin’s representatives established themselves as the default government critics, while other opposition parties appeared to falter.
In the past, the party’s historical connection to the IRA and traditional partisan loyalties had acted as a barrier to voter support, but these factors appeared to be less influential now. By mid-2022 the conventional wisdom was that Sinn Féin would inevitably lead the next government– the only question was whether this would be in the form of a groundbreaking left-wing coalition or alongside Fianna Fáil.
Towards the end of 2022, the possibility of Mary Lou McDonald being the next Taoiseach seemed probable, with betting odds standing at 2/7. Sinn Féin TDs had long been instructed to introduce their statements with phrases such as “When Sinn Féin is in government” and “A Sinn Féin government would…” Now, the rhetoric seemed justified.
However, there then came a fall. On the subject of immigration, Sinn Féin found itself ensnared in the conflict between its populist and progressive factions.
The prevailing sentiment of certainty neglects the ever-changing aspect of the political landscape; statuses aren’t static. Despite a decline in popularity since the election, the Coalition Government’s support remains respectable when compared to other mid-term governments.
Associate professor from UCD, Aidan Regan, expressed scepticism about the durability of any political party maintaining a voter base above 25% for an extended period.
The transition from 2022 to 2023 marked the burgeoning of a politically delicate matter: immigration. Over 100,000 refugees, including Ukrainians, seeking asylum entered a nation with an already overwhelmed housing system. The end of Covid lockdowns incited the resumed travels of refugees and a surge in asylum seekers, expectedly exceeding 20,000 in the current year.
Asylum centres started receiving heightened attention, with extreme right-wing groups vociferously criticising Sinn Féin as community betrayers. Concern over immigration extended beyond these fringe groups. More conventional politicians also started amplifying local worries regarding the strain on services and housing.
A local TD addressed the demand for a limit on incoming numbers, expressing their inability to impose such restrictions considering their party’s potential future role in the government.
Research indicated that Sinn Féin supporters harboured stronger reservations towards immigration compared to supporters of other parties. Concurrently, the party’s newer, progressive, city-dwelling members showed concern for migrant rights. This dichotomy generated tension within Sinn Féin, as it straddled between populism and progressiveness.
Working on the front line, some Sinn Féin TDs actively engaged with locals to dispel hostility towards asylum seekers. However, this didn’t seem to translate into political gains. According to Ó Broin, the topic of “irregular migration” raised varied opinions among constituents.
“Majority of individuals are simply interested in understanding the state of their local communities and whether resources would be sufficiently distributed to cater for both the native community and new immigrants,” he mentions. “What has mainly upset people is the lack of a strategy from the Government; their blatant neglect in engaging with citizens, hearing their anxieties, and furnishing satisfactory explanations.”
David Cullinane, Sinn Féin’s Deputy for Waterford, sees a unique role for Sinn Féin in working-class areas, which, for the last ten years have been the party’s mainstay.
“It is critical for Sinn Féin to counter the spurious arguments of those who show bad faith and lack solutions — to challenge their disinformation,” he suggests. “Our responsibility is to ensure that communities in working-class areas are not influenced by people acting in bad faith.”
Nevertheless, privately, it was noticeable many members were unsettled, and extensive internal dialogues have taken place on this. In the last few months, the party’s highest-ranking adviser in Northern Ireland, Stephen McGlade, has relocated from Stormont to Leinster House. Party insiders, however, have dismissed that this move is in response to declining polls, but is instead a preparation strategy for the government in the South.
The Party decision makers still seem to have doubts about immigration, focusing on both strengthening the system and welcoming refugees.
“One deputy has claimed, “We were seen as rather inconsistent.”
“At present, the party is moving towards the same path as the Government. “If individuals are entitled to refugee status, they must find a home here and receive care,” asserts Cullinane, adding, “But unsuccessful aspirants should be sent back.”
But how will this be perceived by the party’s progressive voters? Aidan Regan of UCD regards the situation with doubt. He warns that if they toughen their stance on immigration, they risk diminishing their appeal among younger urban voters who may swing towards the Social Democrats.
“The rapid increase in left-leaning urban voter support will erode. Typically, centrist-left parties do not experience electoral gains from taking a strict line on immigration.”
In essence, whilst reassuring to the general population, this newly adopted stance against open borders might have progressives on edge.
Regan suggests that adopting an immigration stance aimed at impressing voters whose primary concern is immigration is not likely to be a successful strategy. This sentiment resonates with various TDs who have been engaging with constituents recently. It has been observed that the individuals who fiercely oppose immigration during political campaigns either fail to register to vote or abstain from participating in the previous elections. A TD laments, “Such people will never cast their vote in our favour.”
However, TDs and campaigners on the ground argue that Sinn Féin’s challenge does not solely revolve around the immigration issue. It extends beyond mere criticism of the Coalition to offering a robust and feasible governing strategy that enhances the quality of life for citizens.
Issues like inadequate disability services, insufficient resources for caregivers, a scarcity of respite and domestic help, housing, and rising rents frequently surface during door-to-door campaigns, notes Pa Daly, Sinn Féin TD for Kerry. He says, “Individuals who perceive us as an agent of change in housing, health, and local services – those are the ones who might choose to vote for us.