In other Dublin news, we saw the crucial elimination of Green Party’s Ciarán Cuffe last night at the RDS, which allowed Labour’s Aodhan Ó Riordáin to be elected over Niall Boylan of Independent Ireland via Cuffe’s transfers. Cuffe’s departure indicates a grim future for the Greens, much to the delight and surprise of Labour’s bigwigs.
Meanwhile in Limerick, a clear trend was established with the victory of Independent John Moran, who comfortably clinched the first mayoral position in Ireland.
However, the countings in Cork and Castlebar for the constituencies of Ireland South and Midlands-North-West (MNW) are still ongoing, potentially extending into Friday. South moves into its 11th count today while MNW embarks on its 10th round.
The situation in Ireland South is still uncertain after ten counts; possibly requiring another ten before any clarity emerges. The process still has a long way to go, as the eliminations of smaller candidates are yet to occur. Currently, nine out of fifteen contenders for seats obtained less than 5% of the vote, accumulating nearly 200,000 votes. These candidates need to be eliminated and their votes distributed before the major players come into focus.
The alignment of these votes is critical for the later stages of elimination. The mass of right-wing votes, which includes the far-right votes such as Derek Blighe’s 25,000, might favour Michael McNamara, a critic of the government’s immigration policy. However, Mick Wallace could also receive a portion of the anti-establishment votes.
If Green candidate Grace O’Sullivan receives significant transfers from Labour and the Social Democrats and even from fellow ex-Green candidate Lorna Bogue, she could potentially overtake Wallace. As for Kathleen Funchion, a significant transfer from her colleague Paul Gavan is needed.
Cynthia Ní Mhurchú of Fianna Fáil has stunned everyone with her election performance. However, in order to outdo John Mullins of Fine Gael, she’ll need to receive a wide array of transferred votes. Despite her popularity as a “celebrity” candidate, the likelihood of such a scenario is uncertain at best. The major issue here is that her colleague, Billy Kelleher, may receive the majority of the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael transfers, thus hindering her chance of victory. Nevertheless, this remains a close race. As things stand, Sean Kelly looks set for victory while Billy Kelleher also seems on track for success. Michael McNamara’s chances are also quite promising, leaving Ní Mhurchú, O’Sullivan, Wallace and Funchion to fight for the remaining seats.
In the Midlands-North-West region, the 11th count is set to commence and we’re yet to eliminate the fringe candidates. Pauline O’Reilly of the Green Party will be the one exiting next, with seven more candidates to get through before we even reach the serious contenders.
The race here is incredibly close, with a mere 22,000 votes separating the top five. Leading the pack is Luke Ming Flanagan, who remains short of securing a win by over 30,000 votes. Victory among the top contenders isn’t expected to happen anytime soon.
Aside from Flanagan, the current leaders – Nina Carberry and Maria Walsh of Fine Gael, Barry Cowen of Fianna Fáil and Ciaran Mullooly of Independent Ireland – are followed closely by three more candidates: Michelle Gildernew of Sinn Féin, Lisa Chambers of Fianna Fáil and Peadar Tóibín of Aontú. While Gildernew and Chambers could see extra votes from their partners, their victory is doubtful unless they either win all the votes (an unlikely event) or obtain substantial transfers from elsewhere.
Although it may be a significant challenge, Tóibín does have an opportunity. In the forthcoming rounds of vote counts, 50,000 right-wing votes will be divided. If he can secure a substantial portion of these votes, and perhaps some from Sinn Féin, he stands a chance of overtaking Mullooly. Sure, it’s expected that Mullooly, too, will be vying for these votes, but Tóibín’s victory is not entirely out of the question. The telling factor will be the distribution of John Waters, Hermann Kelly, and Peter Casey’s votes in ensuing counts. If they predominantly swing towards Tóibín instead of Mullooly, it could spell success for the Aontú leader.