Ursula von der Leyen is poised to maintain her presidency of the European Commission for another term, following the bolstering position her centre-right party group secured in the European elections. Ever since 2019, she has fostered a more political image, addressing an array of crises such as Covid-19, the warfare in Ukraine and Gaza, and setting ambitious goals related to climate change and foreign policy. The European Commission has gradually become a pivotal player in EU decision-making under her leadership, although this has stirred controversy surrounding her top-down executive approach and her political acuity. Now, her responsibilities are escalating.
This week, discussions about major EU positions will be led by heads of state and subsequently face a vote in the European Parliament. The centrist coalition that backs Von der Leyen seems sturdy enough to ensure her nomination, however the negotiations surrounding parliamentary and policy assistance brings into question her ability to compromise with hard-right parties, like the one led by Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, given the continued support expected from greens, social democrats, and liberals. The results of the forthcoming French national elections will have significant implications on these outcomes. Von der Leyen’s aspiration for a more robust EU stance on competitiveness, defence, digitalisation and climate policies may not receive prominent political backing.
Her concession on facets of the Green New Deal, which she initially endorsed, amidst right-wing resistance has sparked disapproval from centrist counterparts. Her hasty endorsement of Israel’s position on Gaza without demanding legal proportionality in response to the Hamas atrocities, has sparked outrage from Irish leaders and other international voters. Many also take issue with her inclination towards American foreign policy and economic approaches without due consideration for European interests.
A portion of this critique can be attributed to the EU’s transition towards a more political and geopolitical status in policymaking and the exercise of international power. The European elections procures an admittedly underdeveloped democratic mandate, and Von der Leyen’s actions mirror those outcomes. Her duty is to align her political strategies with EU’s collective capabilities and its political course, whilst also striving for the compromises necessary to actualise them. Her extensive political background as a German minister and her activist role as Commission president since 2019 contribute to her suitability for the position.
Her most significant challenge will be to remain composed and procure agreements that can solidify the EU’s capacity to manoeuvre through economic, climate, migration and international hurdles despite the potentially intensifying disparities among the different political factions in Europe. This will be the true litmus test of her political abilities in the forecasted turbulent five years ahead.