Gaining consensus from the leaders of the 27 European Union countries was always perceived to be the less complex of two obstacles Ursula von der Leyen needed to overcome for a second term in the European Commission’s top role. On Monday night, national leaders convened in Brussels to discuss their nomination for the commission president position, with the German politician being the major front-runner. Her candidacy has been further reinforced by the impressive performance of her central right political bloc, the European People’s Party (EPP), in the recent European Parliament elections.
Securing a majority of MEPs’ approval in the European Parliament to confirm her nomination may however, pose a steeper challenge, potentially jeopardising her campaign for another tenure at the commission’s Berlaymont offices. In the wake of recent European elections, the consensus started to firm up among the 27 national leaders to resolve their decision on their nomination for the prime EU role sooner rather than later.
French president Emmanuel Macron had been withholding his support for Von der Leyen’s second term for several months, an act suspected by many as a bid to gain maximum profit. Macron was the one to introduce von der Leyen’s candidacy five years ago, leading to the then relatively obscure German defence minister securing the esteemed EU role.
Mario Draghi, previous Italian prime minister and former president of the European Central Bank, had been proposed as a potential alternate by some within Macron’s circle a few weeks prior. Clarity was lacking whether Draghi was being used to survey the possibility of a late surprise contender to replace von der Leyen, or if he was a serious contender for the position.
Regardless, the French leader is now unlikely to possess the capacity to take on a significant political battle in both the domestic and European arenas. The initial voting stage in the snap parliamentary elections, where Macron’s centrist party faces a potential complete loss against Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, is barely a fortnight away.
Von der Leyen may receive political consent from global leaders to remain in her role, however, it is only during a comprehensive conference later in the following week where her official nomination for a second term will be determined. If that happens, the challenging duty of gathering a majority of the 720 MEPs to endorse her appointment will fall upon her, with the earliest potential date for this vote to happen being the third week of July. In her previous run, she secured her position by a mere nine vote difference, and since then, she has unfavourably attracted a larger number of adversaries as the commission’s president.