Venezuelans have been fleeing their homeland by the millions, as the despair brought on by the corrupt and cruel rules of Nicolas Maduro’s administration grows. Despite 11 years in power, Maduro’s reign has caused roughly a quarter of the country’s populace, nearly eight million people, to seek haven elsewhere. This staggering refugee crisis is surpassed only by those in Afghanistan and Syria, with Ukraine fast on its heels. Consequentially, the country’s GDP has plummeted nearly 75%, causing widespread poverty in a country that once thrived on its oil riches. Moreover, the nation’s sovereign and oil company debts have skyrocketed to an alarming $160 billion.
Optimistic expectations that the recent July 28th election would catalyse a change in power were soon dashed. Despite evidence of a clear victory for the opposition from the country’s 15,000 polling stations, Maduro adamantly claims majority support. His assertion, which lacks verifiable proof, is nonetheless endorsed by the state electoral commission and a supreme court predominantly composed of his followers.
The civil unrest in the country cannot be understated, with hundreds of protests erupting, even within working-class neighbourhoods that were once strongholds of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez. The pushback from authorities has been severe, leading to at least 24 lives lost and over 2,000 imprisonments. Notably, 80% of those detained belong to working-class communities, states the Venezuelan human rights organisation Provea. Reportedly, in the state of Zulia, a priest was forcibly removed by the National Guard as his congregation looked on. Meanwhile, opposition leaders such as María Corina Machado and former diplomat Edmundo González, have either sought refuge in hiding or been incarcerated.
At present, the authorities are conducting door-to-door searches under the guise of “Operation Knock Knock”, hauling individuals suspected of being rebellious from their beds. The government has resorted to seizing passports of those thought to be defiant. A mobile application has been introduced, encouraging neighbours to report any individuals supporting the opposition. Strict regulations have been imposed on non-governmental organisations through a recent law. Despite the ongoing crackdown, there’s an unseen level of severity – last year’s UN report accounted for humanitarian crimes perpetrated by Maduro and other top-tier officials, encompassing unlawful executions, forced disappearances, unwarranted arrests, and torture.
At a rally held after the election, Maduro proudly declared to his followers, “Maximum punishment! Justice!” He further claimed that “No mercy will be shown this time!” He strongly believes that he emerged as the winner of the election. According to Maduro, his government is enduring an attempted coup overthrown by extreme right-wing fascists sponsored by the U.S, and he is prepared to do whatever it takes to quash it. Recently, he blamed adversaries for instigating a global “satanic” conspiracy associated with Elon Musk, whom he has openly crossed paths with.
His authority is now predominantly backed by the military, the Bolivarian National Guard (a paramilitary police unit), armed civilian squads associated with his United Socialist Party (USP) who keep surveillance on the streets for any “radicals”, and triple intelligence agencies. The military has strategically infiltrated fundamental segments of the economy, including the critical oil sector. Their unwavering loyalty has been secured through substantial salary hikes and a rise through the ranks: the military troop of 130,000 now includes 2,000 generals and admirals. Despite these measures, this may not suffice. An NGO named Foro Penal presumes a considerable number of the political prisoners in the country prior to the election belonged to the armed forces.
A precarious Maduro has been consistently dependent upon security and intelligence counsel from Cuba, which has remained a crucial segment of his entourage over the years, offering personal protection and launching a widespread counter-intelligence initiative designed to watch the military for traces of infidelity. Ahead of the elections, it was reported that three aircrafts carrying Cuban troops landed, to provide additional support to the regime.
However, beyond Cuba and Nicaragua, Maduro has detected no readiness in the area to acknowledge his “triumph”. His “victory” has been formally recognised by Argentina, Uruguay and the US, while Gonzalez’s triumph is disputed by the European Union citing issues of legitimacy, and the UN steadfastly remarking that the country’s electoral system failed to adhere to fundamental transparency and integrity prerequisites, which are essential for carrying out convincing elections.
Brazil and Colombia are in the process of orchestrating negotiations between Maduro and the opposition, yet without much success as yet. Both left-leaning presidents of these countries, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Gustavo Petro, have hinted at carrying out the elections once again, while the former has dismissed Maduro’s authority. It is anticipated that further global sanctions, aimed at regime’s officials as well as Maduro himself, will be implemented.
In the meantime, a nationwide poll suggests that up to 40 per cent of the nation’s people aim to leave the country, to join the growing Venezuelan diaspora of 3 million in the neighbouring Colombia, 1.5 million in Peru, and roughly 500,000 individuals each in Brazil and Chile.