As the looming date of July 28th approaches, Venezuelan citizens are faced with a critical decision: to depart from their homeland or to continue residing there. This decision is contingent upon the outcome of the forthcoming crucial presidential election. A 60-year-old lawyer agonises over imminent separation from her youngest daughter, a journalist contemplates ditching everything he knows for an overseas future and a young political campaigner in opposition plans a perilous journey through the treacherous jungle and seven different nations to reach America.
Should the incumbent leader Nicolás Maduro claim victory, numerous Venezuelans plan to exit the country. However, a win for the opposition would encourage them to remain. This common sentiment is expressed by 28-year-old challenger Leonela Colmenares.
A significant portion of the Venezuelan populace, a quarter to be precise, has relocated to various other countries, contributing to one of the world’s most severe migrant crises. The United Nations estimates this number to be close to eight million people, resulting in the fragmentation of numerous families and a loss of skilled personnel from the nation.
American President Joe Biden is confronted with an unparalleled challenge as a substantial number of these migrants are seeking to enter the United States. While there has been a downward trend in the number of entrants crossing the US border in recent months, months such as August, September, and October typically see an increase, particularly from those crossing the Darien Gap – a treacherous jungle area lying between Colombia and Panama. This influx of migrants could pose a complex challenge to the Biden administration, especially since not all migrants are bound for the US nor do all seek entry through the southern border.
Once in the United States, these Venezuelans strain the resources of cities like Denver and fill shelters in New York. However, the impact of this mass migration is most deeply observed back in Venezuela due to the loss of various skilled professionals – teachers, doctors, engineers – and the widespread dispersion of families across the globe.
Numerous Venezuelans reluctant to leave their homeland had initially believed they could instigate desired changes from within. However, years of relentless protests, the stronghold of a rigid autocratic regime and numerous failed attempts at removing Maduro from power by opposition leaders, has left many pinning their last hopes on this impending election.
The persistent economic crisis in Venezuela, made worse by governmental mishandling and further driven by US imposed sanctions, has lasted almost ten years. The administration has recently intensified the detainment of those they see as oppositionists, stirring up concern for increased harassment if Maduro sustains control.
The watchdog group, Criminal Forum, states that close to 300 political detainees are being held by the government. Journalist Jesús Zambrano, 32, holds the view that although he has done all he can for his country, he is not prepared to be imprisoned for his work and considers emigrating to Germany.
Private pollsters, ORC Consultants’ survey conducted in June proposes that approximately one-third of Venezuelans are contemplating migration if the incumbent government goes unchallenged. Of those, half communicated an intent to depart in the six-month period succeeding the July 28th vote.
Despite some analusts hesitating to believe the exodus will be so grand or swift, the subject of migration cuts across Venezuelan socio-economic and political stratifications. It unites people divided by geography with a communal yearning for reassembly and it has been elevated as a chief concern in the impending election.
The dominant opposition figurehead is María Corina Machado, an enthusiastic ex-parliamentarian whose principal campaign message is a pledge to restore democracy, kickstart the economy and draw Venezuelan migrants back home.
Even though prohibited from appearing on the election ticket by Maduro’s regime, Machado is the backbone of the campaign for the appointed candidate, former diplomat, Edmundo González. Her characteristic style of campaigning often involves dressing in white and wearing a cross pendant whilst interacting with supporters.
The González-Machado campaign has been showcasing videos of emotional Venezuelans yearning for their win in order to reunite with family members who have left. At a recent opposition gathering, a distraught woman cried out at a recording camera about the full extent of her family’s departure abroad.
She sighed heavily, “The United States, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia; I’m at my wit’s end.” The disheartening images of drained Venezuelans treacherously trekking through the Darién Jungle towards the US border have drawn global attention to theisues engulfing the country.
For some time, Maduro has pointed to US sanctions as the root of the mass exodus from his country, particularly those impacting the oil sector from 2019 onwards. Confronted with mounting electoral pressure, however, he has begun to address the diaspora more directly, rather than just blaming the United States for its existence. His appeals for citizens to return have grown stronger.
Last month on his TV programme, Maduro heralded the launch of the Grand Mission Return to the Homeland. This initiative, he said, would provide comprehensive socioeconomic safety only possible under Venezuela’s Bolivarian revolution – his version of socialism. Nevertheless, he gave no specifics. “Venezuela is the place to be,” he affirmed.
A long-time advocate for regime change, Colmenares helped establish a political party known as the Popular Will at just 15 and has spent years protesting against everything from the decline in public services to the detention of fellow activists.
Juggling between her studies and an inability to cover universities fees, she migrated temporarily to Colombia and took on a waitress job which paid only enough for meals. Now the main source of income for her ailing parents, Colmenares works at a university and runs a small sideline baking pastries and operating a makeshift taxi service.
However, she struggles to afford her mother’s medication. Burdened yet determined, she invests all her efforts into backing the González-Machado campaign. Her contingency plan if Maduro secures another term is to seek asylum at the US border, journeying through Colombia, the Darién, Central America, and Mexico.
While the US’s parole programme offers a potential legal route, without a US sponsor—which she doesn’t have—it would be a long, uncertain wait for approval, if it would even come at all.
Zuleika Meneses, a 33-year-old associate of Colmenares and founding member of Popular Will, is contemplating deserting Venezuela if the government under Maduro continues to control. Meneses, an active dissident since the age of 14, yearns to remain in her homeland. She harbours aspirations of one day having a political career, potentially as the president of Venezuela. However, her decision to leave is not solely due to economic hardships, she also fears an impending larger scale crackdown where she may suffer the same fate as her imprisoned counterparts. “I don’t want to become another statistic,” she warns.
Marisol Ríos, a 62-year-old attorney and parent of three daughters, finds herself in a similar predicament. Two out of her three daughters have already departed from their homeland, resided now in the US and Colombia. At her Táchira-based abode, on the western fringes of the country, she reveals that her youngest daughter, María Paulina (24), is potentially planning to follow suit.
Her boyfriend, a violin instructor, provides a gentle soundtrack to the touching scene as Ríos wrestles with the heart-wrenching thought of a life devoid of her offspring. She confesses, “It would hurt immensely if Paulina departed, as she’s my support system,” continues Ríos, “However, I find myself powerless to hinder her pursuit of life, for she has every right to exist.”