Fine Gael has been facing a series of challenges recently. A humiliating loss in the latest referendums followed polls revealing the party’s stagnation ahead of the local and European elections. Numerous Fine Gael TDs choosing not to run in the upcoming general election has only added to the party’s issues, hardly indicating a strong sense of self-assurance within the party. Despite this, Leo Varadkar’s resignation as Taoiseach and party leader was an unexpected development.
Predictably, government parties have asserted that this change will not trigger a general election, while the Opposition insists it’s urgently needed. Assuming a new Taoiseach is elected by the Dáil and the coalition remains intact — an assumption we should not blindly make — Varadkar’s departure introduces new unpredictability into the coming year.
The prevailing belief was that an autumn election was expected. Now, the future is far less certain. A fresh Fine Gael leader may choose to call for an early election, hoping for a sense of reinvigoration in the party. Alternatively, they may choose to delay till February or March next year, taking the opportunity to showcase policy achievements during their first year in office. Unpredictable events, such as an unexpected crisis or a loss of trust within the coalition, could decide the course for the next leader. Irrespective of the exact date, the government is embarking on its final stretch.
Varadkar held obvious appeal for Fine Gael when he assumed the helm in 2017 being a young, policy-focused leader with strong communication skills. He, along with Micheál Martin and Eamon Ryan, deserve praise for navigating the country through the Covid-19 pandemic and the cost of living crisis and has taken a clear, generous position in supporting Ukraine and its citizens during the war.
During the government’s term, there has been significant recovery in the economy and public finance and job market has shown promising growth. The Brexit issue was managed as effectively as possible.
The administration’s mismanagement of the housing crisis stands out as its most glaring shortfall, with homeless figures hitting an all-time high – an unfortunate stain on the authority and the nation itself. The Coalition has begun to demonstrate urgency towards this grave issue, yet Varadkar made a crucial mistake by not prioritising it earlier in his tenure. Advancements in the healthcare sector have been sporadic and painfully slow, and we still await an earnest investigation into the government’s handling of the pandemic.
Despite the ambiguity surrounding the precise causes and timing of Varadkar’s exit, it cannot be denied that he wouldn’t step away if everything was proceeding smoothly. No political leader would. His departure leaves the party staring down the barrel of challenging European and local elections during a period where party morale is at rock-bottom and the potential for electoral success is anything but certain. Consequently, Fine Gael’s decision on Varadkar’s successor carries an immense weight of expectation.