Being out of political office certainly lowers the challenge for tall political declarations, and that’s where Leo Varadkar, the past Taoiseach, finds himself. No longer is he required to make political compromises with various parties harbouring different goals and needs; he can freely adjust his stance without needing the approval of a diverse and often split electorate; and he hasn’t to fret over electoral success. That being said, it seems plausible that Varadkar expressed last week that the pursuit of a united Ireland should transform from an “ambition” (as Simon Harris tagged it upon his office entry) to a solid “objective” for all political factions.
Yet, there’s a catch—necessarily, the weight given to comments made from the sidelines is less than those voiced from the office. This wider understanding has influenced the reception of Varadkar’s recent political gambit. Barely any ripple was caused in Westminster, with even the Labour Party, often more lenient, still viewing Varadkar as a lingering annoyance for the British administration. This mild response can be excused to some extent, given the impending chaos in the Middle East, the floundering Labour Party not even 100 days into its tenure, and Harris’ declaration that the question is “not a priority”. However, the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, should be paying attention to these remarks.
Varadkar’s comments are part of a growing trend of louder and more regular discussions on this topic. This summer, he shared similar views in Belfast; back in 2023, while serving as Taoiseach, he claimed Ireland was marching towards unity, and Mary Lou McDonald in February stated her expectations of a referendum on the issue by 2030.
The conversation around a unified Ireland has moved up on the public’s concern list. Regardless of the distant reality of a unified Ireland subjected to changing demographics and lukewarm interest from the south, the sense that unity is growing steadily closer prevails.
Varadkar seems committed to ensuring the issue of a united Ireland remains a spectre for Starmer’s Britain.
An aura of certainty can hold significant sway in the field of politics, as evidenced by the recent elections in Britain. At first glance, the impending downfall of the Conservatives and Labour’s victory came across as predetermined, with no other outcome in sight – a prediction that ultimately became reality. This might harken back to historical moments like the inevitable downfall of Rome’s Republic, viewed as a cosmic decree. However, such perceptions of inevitability often breed complacency, as efforts to change the trajectory seem pointless given the predestiny attached.
While there’s a chasm separating active poll preparations and wholly ignoring key issues, it’s within these boundaries that Labour’s Keir Starmer must demonstrate a willingness to learn from past mistakes.
More pressing threats to the country, like Russia and the Middle East, are shaping the image of Europe. Neglecting the future governance of Ireland for larger concerns might seem practical, but risks being perceived as shortsighted. In overlooking such issues, the UK Government could potentially be unknowingly creating a conducive atmosphere for unification campaigns. Looking back, it’ll be hard to ignore the inevitability and Starmer’s involvement in this tale wouldn’t be relegated to a mere footnote.
Labour has lots to learn from the missteps of their predecessors. A prime example is the Conservative Party’s neglect towards the complications of Brexit and the impact on the Northern Irish border, an oversight that led to the culmination of Theresa May’s tenure, stymieing the project and fostering hostility with the EU. This inadvertently set the stage for Boris Johnson’s tenure. Furthermore, Sinn Féin’s growing prominence went unnoticed by the party and the governing body at Westminster, causing them to be caught off guard when Sinn Féin replaced the DUP in Stormont. The succession of unfit Northern Ireland secretaries compounded the tension whilst the English press added fuel to the fire by scapegoating Varadkar and the Irish state, in a bid to divert attention from the catalogue of poor decision-making.
Throughout the whole time, Ireland continued to trouble the Tories. This was expected to be rewritten by Starmer. He has a personal fondness for Ireland as his personal sensibilities were shaped there, and two of his closest advisors are Irish. The decision to appoint Hilary Benn to the Northern Ireland Office indicated a shift: the British government is prepared to meet their responsibilities seriously. Above all, Starmer demonstrated that he comprehended something fundamental – the key to handling the North lay in nurturing a positive relationship between Westminster and Dublin. So far, such strategy has been successful.
However, if Starmer has aspirations to be recognised as a prime minister for the entire United Kingdom, rather than solely England, he needs to do more. His party has openly stated – as articulated by Fleur Anderson, a minister in the Northern Ireland Office, at a recent Liverpool conference – that a border poll is hardly top of Labour’s agenda. That’s acceptable, but there’s a vast distinction between actively planning for a poll and disregarding the issue entirely. It’s within this grey area that Starmer must demonstrate he has learned from the errors of his predecessors. Otherwise, he will be just another casualty of a completely preventable misfortune.