Around seven years back, during his bid to become the head of Fine Gael, Leo Varadkar made a statement about wanting to command a party for “those who rise early”. This statement left a lasting impression, associating it with the soon-to-step-down taoiseach.
The statement sparked different reactions, captivating certain people, while others found it disagreeable. This is the nature of unforgettable political catchphrases; they evoke something unquantifiable, like the hopeful zeal of a fresh leader. However, for some, it has come to symbolise unrealised aspirations.
“Leo was not incorrect, though he faced criticism for it, and he ought to have remained firm,” remarks Ciarán Cannon, the TD for Galway East of Fine Gael. This week he became the 10th member of the parliamentary party to disclose that they won’t pursue a Dáil seat.
The stepping down of long-established TDs is a key signal of an issue Brendan Griffin, the Kerry TD, describes as a “drift.”
“The thing is there hasn’t been motivation for a while. This has been…there’s been a drifting happening for an amount of time.”
With Simon Harris, the 37-year-old Minister for Further Education, on the cusp of accepting Varadkar’s position, the party anticipates a change in direction.
What led to Fine Gael’s downfall is still not clear. But what can be the resolution for a party at risk of losing momentum and stepping towards decline?
There’s been a failure to effectively convey its mission by Fine Gael, is a common sentiment.
“There’s a significant sum of money being invested in rural Ireland,” says Paul Kehoe, Wexford TD and prior Government chief whip along with a Cabinet minister. “Did we benefit from it? I don’t believe it.”
Cannon feels Fine Gael has failed to connect with a large number of individuals who he considers are the party’s target voters.
These individuals, according to him, believe they’re significantly aiding the economic landscape and are keen to ensure their efforts produce effective results,” he explains in British English. They are of the opinion that there is no one voicing their views. He mentions he’s lost track of how many people have confessed to him that Fine Gael used to be their preferred political party.
“They are eagerly waiting for someone to re-establish a connection with them and assure them we are in their corner,” he comments.
Senior members of the party, still deeply affected by the recent upheavals and exhausted by its aftermath, are hoping to regroup behind Harris.
The other facet of this issue is a sentiment that Fine Gael has strayed from its primary ethos – a general grievance for a party that has held governmental power for 13 years, particularly during a period of prompt transformation marked by crisis.
Nevertheless, a part of their corrective action, as suggested by many retiring politicians, is to realign the party by concentrating on the potential votes available to them and refining their key message.
“It’s essential to revert back to fundamental principles of Fine Gael for the future,” Kehoe insists, advocating for a focus on law enforcement, the economy and enterprise. He claims that while significant support for small businesses has been apparent, Fine Gael’s governance has been a mixed bag, offering both support and burden.
“They are not capable of dealing with all the pressure directed their way,” he argues in opposition to the barrage of legislation concerning sick days, the rise in minimum wage and other employer responsibilities.
For Griffin, despite all the support for businesses during the pandemic, they are now experiencing fatigue and decline.
“The appropriate time to offer hydration and salts to a marathon runner is not at the starting line, but rather when they are struggling at the 20-mile mark,”– is the point he makes.
Social Agenda
There’s plenty of worry about what is perceived as a shift towards social progressivism, a direction that while not in direct opposition to what are considered ‘Fine Gael’s principles’, certainly isn’t central to the party’s identity. The most recent, and detrimental, manifestation of this change was the lost referendums the previous month.
TDs who are about to retire are looking forward to fresh opportunities. Cannon anticipates hosting a weekly late-night music programme on Loughrea Community Radio, although recent incidents still leave a mark. “There are alarming incidents, really alarming incidents, and then there’s that,” he expresses.
Griffin concurs, “Many individuals have commented to me, ‘Who was demanding these? This is something that would never have been mentioned at a Fine Gael gathering. Why risk such significant political influence on an issue that isn’t a party priority?’” For him, the social agenda will be of utmost concern to members.
Paul Kehoe opines that Fine Gael has always been regarded as a conservatively inclined party. “We don’t wish to return to the era of church and state, but we need to evaluate woke politics and its implications for future generations,” he states.
The correlation between the evolving social agenda, or ‘woke politics’, and a departure from core Fine Gael principles, as perceived by quite a number of retiring TDs, is noteworthy.
Mostly male, over the age of 50, and hailing from non-metropolitan areas, this group represents only a fraction of the electorate, existing within one segment of the parliamentary party, possibly in decline. Yet as he steps into his new role, Harris should be cognizant of these concerns, given the potential for internal dissent stemming from the perception that Fine Gael’s leadership, lauded for its social reform, is deviating too significantly from established norms.
Fine Gael is perceived to have lost its original essence, a not uncommon grievance for a party that has been in power for 13 years. However, Cannon notes that while an important facet of Irish policymaking focuses on this, it is perceived to have moved from the periphery to the core of the party’s identity.
Harris, a liberal and progressive figure who led the successful Repeal The Eighth campaign which lifted the prohibition on abortion in 2018, faces a balance act. Despite suggestions that Fine Gael should return to its traditional ethos, it should be noted that this perspective is not unanimously accepted.
Fergus O’Dowd of Louth, who will be stepping back from his role as a TD, advocates for a more gentle and compassionate approach to governship. He asserts the importance of openness and flexibility in government, rejecting a shift towards a more conservative approach. His preference lies in central and liberal ideologies.
Veteran party member Richard Bruton, serving as Dublin Bay North TD and soon to retire as well, remains confident in the fundamental principles of his party. He asserts their continuing relevance, painting a clear dichotomy between populist leadership and the data-driven decision making he believes his party embodies. The task lie ahead for them, as he sees it, is to convert these virtues into a tangible and attractive message for the approaching election.
In light of the recent seismic reshaping of Ireland’s political dynamics, what boundaries does the party face? What objectives can Fine Gael realistically target? “Mid-20s percent is the range we should be aiming at,” articulates Paul Kehoe, hinting that independent candidates have made significant inroads into their voter base by embracing a populist narrative, a narrative Fine Gael has failed to counter.
Echoing a similar chorus of opinions, Griffin believes the party can poll to match its 2007 (27 percent) or 2016 (25 percent) figures. In his observation, neither the unprecedented result of 2011 (36 percent) nor the discouraging result of 2020 (21 percent) offer a measure of the party’s potential. His prescription is a return to rudimentary politics, which involves strong local elections in June, robust campaign efforts in each electoral district and systematic strategy dealing with ‘hundreds of battles in each polling district’.
While Griffin suggests a straightforward approach, others anticipate more drastic changes. A prevalent, albeit not universal, sentiment that oil the rumors is the need for Harris to shake up the Cabinet. A sentiment shared by Kehoe, who insists that the Health Minister needs to make adjustments that go beyond merely filling his own empty Cabinet seat. He anticipates Harris will ‘demonstrate courage’, which the general public not only expects but welcomes.
Cannon points out a crucial element, often overlooked – the ability to listen. He observes that losing touch with constituents, as we experienced a fortnight ago, is dangerous. There have been frequent objections for Varadkar, due to his choice of a close circle of aides, or what a former minister facetiously referred to as his “family”. Critics have blamed this insular circle for diminishing Varadkar’s political sharpness. Griffin, however, insists that while a group of advisers is requisite for a high-ranking political figure, a better equilibrium is required.
There are conscientious political advisers, who despite their packed schedules, bring themselves in contact with ordinary citizens, like the ones from west Cork who rise at dawn and are having their meals in the canteen — that’s the claim from a key political analyst.
Kevin Cunningham, academician and architect of the IrelandThinks polling firm, has observed a trend of fluctuating voter loyalty between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in this unpredictable political climate. According to him, for Fine Gael, the most receptive demographic is the Fianna Fáil voter base, while Sinn Féin holds attraction for resistance voters, with a fraction of the left-wing votes wavering between other parties. Independence voters, however, are unlikely to gravitate to Fine Gael.
However, on the upside, there’s room for the party to grow. Cunningham firmly believes that public reaction is influenced by political action – the more interventions made by the government, the more people will respond. As evidence, he points to Paschal Donohoe – the politician who was deemed the most likable in the nation “by a vast margin” once the first cost-of-living measures were enacted.
As for leadership changes, he cites past instances involving Holly Cairns and Varadkar—which indicated that new party heads can occasionally experience a surge in popularity. But he also urges caution as the potential upside—ostensibly a continuous five percentage point increase—may be rather modest, with corresponding downsides being considerably more drastic, especially if the new leaders don’t meet expectations.
Harris, some argue, appears to be more favoured by those who aren’t ardent Fine Gael supporters compared to Varadkar. There’s a possibility that he could re-attract some of the electricity from voters who switched to Fianna Fáil, without causing disturbances within the core Fine Gael voting demographic, although current polls aren’t indicating considerable tailwind for him.
Prominent members of the party, still reeling from this week’s shocking developments and the ensuing upheaval, are now aiming to consolidate support around Harris. They are hopeful that he can restore something intangible which will result in momentum and determination – not unlike what Varadkar brought about when he assumed the leader’s role in 2017.
In fact, the media coverage regarding Harris presently could very well have been echoed when his predecessor, Varadkar, was the talk of the town. A figure within the party divulges privately: “That confidence has ebbed away within the party.”