Why is this being discussed this week?
The former Irish Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, has suggested that all political parties participating in the forthcoming general elections should establish Irish unification as a goal instead of merely expressing their aspirations for it. He further recommended that they pledge to create a fresh forum for Ireland.
What does unification entail?
As per the Belfast Agreement, unification is possible if individual votes for it are given by both sections of the island. However, a referendum for Northern Ireland can be held only if the Northern Secretary of State believes that the question would receive a favourable response.
Are the majority interested in voting for it?
The simple answer is no, or at least, not as of now. Even though proponents of unity argue otherwise, the votes for Unionism are decreasing while the votes for nationalism have not seen a major increase. The gains of Sinn Féin have been at the expense of the SDLP. The votes from the middle ground are increasing but these are divided over the issue of the constitution. For a significant number of people, the issue holds importance but is not their primary concern at the moment.
Is this likely to change?
Only time will give a clear answer. Unless the Democratic Unionist Party gets its act together, the voting share of Unionism will continue to decline. Younger voters from Alliance are demonstrating signs, albeit faint ones, of being more receptive towards unity. However, we’re still some way off from there.
What would be the implications if parties from the Republic started advocating vehemently for unity?
This is indeed a fascinating proposition as it would invariably speed up the debate, particularly if a new forum for Ireland was created along the lines of the one established in the 1980s. This forum had a two-year tenure and was the cause for a major squabble with Margaret Thatcher. The Anglo-Irish Agreement was signed a year after. However, it’d be interesting to see the impact it could have on the relationship with Unionists and London.
Relations between the Democratic Unionist Party and Dublin are fraught, primarily due to their fear of ultra-loyalists, including party leader Jim Allister of the Traditional Unionist Voice party. Dublin’s campaigning would undoubtedly be a boon for Allister.
As a unionist, Keir Starmer has no inclination to be the one who dismembers the UK. Therefore, he is unlikely to embrace a forceful push towards unity from Dublin, depending on what this situation evolves into.
Does Leo Varadkar’s statement hold any weight?
There’s a possibility. Even when Taoiseach Simon Harris appears to have a contrasting stance – viewing unity more as a distant goal than an immediate concern, famously stating that most youngsters are more familiar with Paris or Berlin than they are with Derry or Belfast.
Varadkar’s remarks, however, leave Harris grappling with a fundamental question, a discussion Harris would likely prefer to evade.
The question then becomes – what’s Varadkar’s agenda?
It seems he’s relishing the newfound liberty post his tenure. Although Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald suggests he’s found “his inner Shinner”, one can’t overlook that Varadkar was the most ‘green’ Fine Gael leader and has long been vocally supportive of unity and its planning.