Heavy storms are a frequent occurrence in Europe, but their cycle is undergoing modifications due to consistent global warming. The flood that recently afflicted Spain is a stark reminder that even affluent countries accustomed to such severe weather conditions are far from ready for what lies ahead.
This event marks Spain’s most fatal weather catastrophe since 1973; however, stating this does not accurately capture the gravity of the situation, particularly in Valencia. It was not only the massive quantities of floodwater that were concerning, but also their rapidity and havoc.
The national weather alert system’s failures were laid bare when rainfall equivalent to a year’s average occurred within mere hours. This showed a lack of readiness for radical weather changes, flaws in emergency services, and, perhaps most worryingly, people’s inability to swiftly evacuate to safer locations.
Undeniably, climate change plays a critical role in these extreme rainfall phenomena, as nations grapple with the harsh realities of drought and flood – the two facets of the climate change dilemma. In Ireland, for example, it manifests as overbearing rain and flooding on water-sodden soil.
In recent news, flash floods hit the Valencia region, resulting in at least 95 deaths and many people missing, prompting cries of sorrow across Spain.
Regarding global warming’s impetus, the Mediterranean Sea recorded its hottest surface water temperature of 28.5° on average in the middle of August. Warmer conditions result in more vigour, added moisture in the air becomes high instability as the climate cools down during fall.
Local conditions too play a part, according to Met Éireann’s chief of climate science, Keith Lambkin. In eastern Spain, very humid air, heated and forced upwards by the cooler air beneath, creates heavy rain clouds. With the absence of strong winds, this leads to a “conveyor belt” of relentless rain. These massive storms, detached from the jet stream, remain static.
Although people are aware of the colour-coded weather warning system, the reality of climate transformations and the increasing severity of their effects calls for a switch from forecasting “what the weather will be” to providing “impact-based warnings on what the weather will cause,” Lambkin concludes.
Met Éireann is spearheading a transition in weather forecasting in Ireland, as part of a global and EU-wide effort, though predicting the precise location of a rainstorm presents formidable hurdles. Keith Lambkin notes how challenging it is to ascertain the exact bridge that will give way nor its timing via any current models.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation is at the forefront of creating the ‘Early Warnings for All’ strategy, answering the call to address inadequate warning systems in several countries, particularly in Africa and South America. Liz Stephens, a distinguished professor in climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading, remarked that preventable deaths from anticipated weather events should not occur particularly in resource-rich countries.
She also added that significant strides have to be taken in preparing for potential and tougher events in the future. She further emphasised that reducing infrastructure damage and saving lives from severe weather incidents require adapting our infrastructure and warning systems to a riskier world. This adaptation must also include drastic and swift reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the root cause of the issue.
According to a study by the World Weather Attribution group at Imperial College, London released recently, human-induced climate change amplified the severity of the top ten most fatal extreme weather occurrences of the past two decades, leading to more than 570,000 fatalities. The study draws attention to the already severe perils of climate change at a global warming of 1.3 degrees.
Each additional degree of warming increases the atmosphere’s water carrying capacity by 7%. Considering Europe’s current pace of warming, which is twice as fast as any other continent, it means that instances like the destruction in Valencia are destined to recur elsewhere.