The United States House of Representatives has given the green light to a substantial military assistance package amounting to $95 billion for Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel. This decision has been welcomed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as it helps mitigate the severe shortage of weaponry Ukraine was grappling with in its standoff against Russian aggression. However, there are concerns that without additional support from European military forces, this might only serve as a temporary stopgap against the challenges Ukraine is facing, rather than a long term solution.
The vote underscored Ukraine’s reliance on foreign assistance, triumphing despite the ongoing ideological differences amongst Republicans against such commitments in international policy, especially considering the impending US presidential elections in November. Although there was considerable financial support provided by the EU last month, a clear strategy for European military backing for Kyiv is still not in place.
House Speaker Mike Johnson had a change of heart on Ukraine, swayed by intelligence reports illustrating the escalating military confrontation Ukraine is currently experiencing. This led to his deviation from the prevailing scepticism amongst his Republican counterparts. He voiced his belief stating that without help from the US, he fears that Putin may expand his conquests in Europe, potentially moving into the Baltics, Poland, or any other Nato allies.
Despite the legislation being backed predominantly by the Democrats, Johnson justified his stance, indicating that it ensures stricter regulation of aid to Ukraine, and also necessitates a definitive plan for resolving the war in Ukraine. These aspects of US policy are critical, though the future might witness military aid being tied to peace dialogues as an alternative. If Johnson’s apprehensions about Putin’s ambitions are legitimate, Europe will need to step up their military support to Ukraine.
The conversation surrounding a diplomatic resolution had been hampered due to Russia’s aggressive activity and sluggish assistance by the US and Europe earlier in the year. Now, with the reinstatement of aid, the focus might potentially shift towards methods of ending the conflict. For the moment, the prime objective is providing support to Ukraine.
In the upcoming election season, the US’s strategy towards Ukraine, Europe, and other global territories is shrouded in political doubt. There is a possibility that Mike Johnson’s severance from the Republican isolationist right could put his Speaker position at risk if he falls out of favour with Donald Trump. Trump’s antagonism towards Nato and the European Union complements his undoubted backing for Israel regarding Gaza. Not until long after the election period will the trajectory of US policies become clear.
Similarly, Europe is bracing for political shifts as European Parliament elections loom and a fresh European Commission is anticipated. The European Union’s political heads are wrestling with the pressing necessity for military backing for Ukraine amidst vagueness around the political finality of the war – a situation paralleling that in Washington. These elements possess the potential to become turning points in the transatlantic relations for both parties.