This year, a cover dialogue with Iran has been conducted by the United States with the intent to encourage Tehran to leverage its sway over Yemen’s Houthi movement, in order to put an end to assaults on marine vessels in the Red Sea. This intel has been affirmed by both US and Iranian representatives.
Taking place in Oman in January, these indirect discussions also included the exchange of apprehensions regarding Iran’s advancing nuclear scheme. The meeting was the first of its kind in nearly a year.
The US team was spearheaded by Brett McGurk, the Middle East advisor at the White House, and Abram Paley, the envoy to Iran. From Iran, the Deputy Foreign Minister and prime nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani represented the republic.
To avoid direct confrontation, Omani delegates mediated interactions between the US and Iran.
Apart from the armed deterrence, these discussions highlight the use of diplomatic measures by the Biden administration to abate the sweeping regional animosities ignited by the Israel-Hamas conflict and involving militant groups supported by Iran.
According to a knowledgeable source, the indirect connection with Iran is seen by the US as a means of addressing a comprehensive list of perceived threats originating from Iran. This includes discussions on measures needed to divert a major conflict.
A subsequent round of discussion which was to have Afghan McGurk in attendance was planned for February; however, it was deferred as he got involved in the US’s successful intermediation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, also facilitating the release of Israeli hostages held captive.
An official from the US state department mentioned multiple communication channels with Iran but refrained from revealing specifics. As of October 7, all discussions were focused on emphasizing threats posed by Iran and the requirement for Tehran to halt escalating tensions.
Earlier in May, the last known so-called proximity talks took place between the US and Iran. The war instigated by Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7 has led to exchanges of cross-border fire involving the Iran-aligned Hizbollah, a militant group based in Lebanon, and Israel. Additionally, numerous attacks on ships, inclusive of commercial and US naval vessels by Houths; and onslaughts on US forces in Iraq and Syria by aligned Iraqi militias have taken place.
Allegations have been made numerous times by American authorities, asserting that Iran is supporting Yemeni group, the Houthis, with weaponry and intelligence to carry out maritime strikes. Iran concedes its political alliance with Houthis – the group controlling North Yemen justifying its attacks as support for Palestinians. Yet, Tehran maintains that the rebels act independently.
The Iranian official emphasises that the extent of their influence is more motivational than authoritarian. They lack the leverage to prescribe specific actions to the Houthi, albeit they can engage in discussions and negotiations with them.
There are indications though, that Tehran may be attempting to de-escalate tensions with the US, particularly since a drone strike on a US military base along the Syria-Jordan border resulted in the death of three American soldiers.
Following US President Joe Biden’s retaliation pledge after the attack, Iran withdrew senior Revolutionary Guard Commanders from Syria. In quick response on February 2nd, American troops launched a series of strikes against Iranian-aligned forces in both Syria and Iraq.
US bases in Syria and Iraq have been free from any attacks since February 4th. U.S. officials suggest that Tehran might be creatively bringing Iraqi militias under control.
In a recent visit to Baghdad, Brigadier-General Esmail Ghaani, head of the Qods force responsible for international operations, advised the Iraqi militias to control their actions in a way that wouldn’t provoke any US-Iran engagements.
Iran’s ultimate ambition, however, is to evict US forces from Iraq and Syria. Despite this, Tehran is keen to prevent any open confrontations with either the USA or Israel, hoping also to prevent a wider regional conflict.
The Houthis, however, have been undeterred from continuing assaults on shipping, even after multiple attacks on their military bases by the US and the UK. Since October, the group has launched attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and nearby waters, targeting 15 commercial vessels, including four American ones.
US officials are of the view that military action alone will not deter the Houthis. They hope that eventually, Iran will intercede upon the group to restrain its activities.
Although ideologically the Houthis are further away from Tehran when compared to other militant factions, the bond has solidified as the Houthis have become a critical member of Iran’s backed “axis of resistance”.
Moreover, with Iran continuing to enrich uranium at levels near to weapons-grade, Western countries are growing increasingly anxious about Iran’s nuclear programme.
Prior to October 7th, managing the crisis sparked by ex-president Donald Trump’s abrupt exit from the 2015 nuclear pact between Iran and global leaders was a primary concern of the Biden administration.
In the preceding month, a consensus was reached between Iran and the United States concerning an exchange of prisoners, coupled with an unfreezing of $6 billion belonging to Iran from its oil revenue, which had been held in South Korea. The aforementioned funds were then transferred to a Qatari account with an arrangement to supervise their utilisation.
In conjunction with this agreement, the Biden administration was concurrently striving to reach an informal, unwritten understanding with Iran to de-escalate existing tensions, including establishing a limit on the enrichment of uranium by Iran.
However, the sudden Israel-Hamas conflict quashed any anticipation of positive headway, and the plans to identify foreign corporations authorised to trade humanitarian supplies with the republic using these funds have hit a roadblock. This has impeded Iran’s access to the $6 billion moved to Qatar, causing frustration amid escalating economic strain. It’s pertinent to note that the US has not re-frozen the funds.
Following the revelation of these discussions by the Financial Times, the official news agency IRNA of Iran cited an “educated source” stating the negotiations were only centred around the easing of US sanctions on Iran. He further added, “The priority for Iran has always been the abolition of the harsh sanctions. The Islamic Republic of Iran remains determined in this pursuit.”
– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024