In an important recent poll, Kamala Harris, the American Vice President, leads former President Donald Trump in three significant swing states, indicating a promising shift for the Democrat Party with the election just three months away.
According to the surveys conducted by New York Times and Siena College, Harris is four percent points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, with a score of 50 per cent to 46 per cent. These polls gathered information from nearly 2,000 potential voters across the three states and took place from August 5th to 9th. This was the week Harris announced Minnesota’s governor and former secondary school teacher, Tim Walz, as her running mate for the Democratic nomination in November.
This is the most prominent sign from key swing states since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and supported Harris due to increasing worries about his cognitive wellbeing and capability to govern for another term at the age of 81. These results follow a series of polls in which Biden was either equal to or slightly lagging behind Trump.
According to the voters surveyed, Harris is percieved as smarter, more trustworthy, and temperamentally better suited to lead the country than Trump. Published on Saturday by the New York Times, these results will likely lift the spirits of Democrats. Harris and Walz are midway through their first week on the campaign trail, attending a multitude of events in swing states that will most likely decide the election’s outcome.
In Las Vegas, Nevada—a state where the Biden-Harris ticket had a victory margin of over two points in 2020—they held a rally on Saturday. Though these are only preliminary findings, Democrats will likely take heart from the fact that 60% of the independent voters surveyed were satisfied with the presidential candidates’ choice, a substantial increase from 45% in May.
The shift in public opinion seems to be majorly influenced by changing perceptions of Harris. Her upbeat, forward-thinking campaign speeches have been well received, resulting in a ten-point spike in her favourability rating among registered voters in Pennsylvania. This is a state where Biden narrowly defeated Trump by a little over 80,000 votes four years ago.
For the Democrats to regain control of the White House, Ms Harris must secure victories in key swing states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which Mr Biden was victorious in 2020. Recent poll results may exacerbate the irritation of Mr Trump, as his recent political rallies have largely been filled with frustration, due in part to a shift in momentum following his announcement of JD Vance, the Senator from Ohio and former venture capitalist, as his vice presidential candidate during a jubilant Republican National Convention less than a month prior.
Mr Vance’s controversial comments from 2021, in which he claimed the US was footed by “cat ladies without children,” have been ridiculed by the Democrats and appear to have left him poorly regarded or unenthusiastically received among most independent, Democrat and Republican voters, according to recent polling data.
However, the Democrats still require effort in conveying Ms Harris’s vision for the nation. According to the poll, 60 per cent of registered voters believe that Mr Trump has a concrete perception of the country, with only 53 per cent feeling the same about Ms Harris.
Significantly, in issues of the economy and immigration, two main areas of concern for voters as highlighted in polls, Mr Trump retains a lead in confidence. Yet, Ms Harris holds a notable advantage over Trump regarding the topic of abortion, with a 24-point lead—an issue the Democrats hope will mobilise voters in vital swing states like Arizona and Wisconsin. Harris is also significantly more popular than Mr Trump in the context of democracy, continuing to weather allegations linked to purported roles in the undermining of 2020 election results and the January 6th rebellion in Washington.