Managing a tête-à-tête between two presidential candidates whose collective age doesn’t fall short of the US republic’s two-thirds mark sparks numerous considerations. The proposed solutions include a lack of audience, muting the non-speaking participant and strategising ‘commercials’ to facilitate restroom breaks. It’s an exaggeration to assert that the impending face-off between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be conclusive, but in an intensely contested election where each nominee’s cognitive ability is under question, the debate carries significant weight.
Historically, only three instances have seen presidential debates amplified to a point where they potentially influenced the outcome. Despite these occurrences coinciding with the electoral timelines, usually a few weeks or days prior, Biden’s push for an early date was primarily due to the surge in postal voting in America. Behind this decision, his team’s strategic move was to mount an early disruption to a polling standoff which they had anticipated to wane by this point. The earlier Biden can alleviate misgivings about his advancing years and refocus attention on Trump’s character, the more advantageous it will be. That’s the underlying strategy.
Looking back, past performances have yielded a blend of results. The inception of televised debates saw John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon deliberating in 1960. This precedent might work in Trump’s favour as radio listeners perceived Nixon to be superior, while television viewers sided with Kennedy. The striking difference between Nixon’s infamous ‘five o’clock shadow’ and JFK’s apparent youthfulness was a key factor. In today’s context, you could mute the debate and gauge the more energetic contender, tipping the scales in Trump’s favour. A tight battle saw Kennedy garner 34.2 million votes compared to Nixon’s 34.1 million.
The two remaining decisive electoral debates featured Jimmy Carter. In 1976, barely a month before the election, Carter successfully entrapped the then-president Gerald Ford into denying the Soviet influence over Eastern Europe – a blunder that lost him favour among swing state voters of Polish and Czech heritage during a close-run race, boiling down to a few thousand votes in Ohio and Wisconsin. As per the pollster George Gallup, it marked a pivotal point in the campaign. Even popular actor Chevy Chase joined in the jab on Saturday Night Live parodying Ford: “Last year I visited the capital of Poland, and let me say from the outset that Milwaukee is a beautiful city,” mocked Chase’s Ford.
Regarded as a warm and affable figure, Ronald Reagan’s demeanour in 1980 dispelled notions that he was a zealot primed for war with the Soviet Union. Up until a week prior to the election, Reagan and Carter were virtually tied in polling data. Reagan’s success hinged on presenting himself as a level-headed candidate, and he succeeded, resulting in a resounding victory at the polls.
Donald Trump’s unique ability to disparage whole communities of individuals is unrivalled. He has previously targeted women, military personnel and those who have family members struggling with addiction or disability. Despite Trump’s humour, his personality fails to inspire comfort.
Based on their previous encounters, Joe Biden is predicted to defeat Trump. In their 2020 debates, Biden was deemed the victor, in part due to Trump’s rude behaviour, specifically his harsh comments regarding Biden’s son, Hunter. The audience responded well to Biden’s exasperation encapsulated in his request for Trump to ‘shut up’. Nonetheless, Trump was already on track for a loss. His performance and invasive body language in the 2016 debate against Hillary Clinton was also poorly received, but he managed to win the election nonetheless. James Comey, the former FBI director, could provide insight into this paradox.
Democratic supporters will undoubtedly be anxious ahead of the next debate on Thursday, with Biden on stage. Traditional factors such as the mute test may no longer hold relevance. A more useful gauge could be platforms like TikTok or Instagram Reels, as these are where many Americans will gain familiarity with the candidates. Biden made a convincing State of the Union address in March, but many were only exposed to a 15-second clip wherein he fumbled the name of a murder victim. The gap between the perceptions of people who watched the complete speech and those who only saw these brief excerpts was significant. In the coming week we can expect a number of soundbites that capture Biden’s particular style of speech.
It’s potentially disheartening that perceptions shaped by such fleeting impressions could be pivotal to the future of US democracy. The silver lining for Biden is that the debate format largely benefits him. Trump flourishes in front of live audiences and will face a challenge adjusting to a quiet setting. His interruptions will be silenced when Biden takes his turn to speak. Furthermore, Biden shouldn’t miss the opportunity to remind viewers of his competitor’s status as a convicted criminal.
It would be a pleasant thought to believe that policy conflicts will determine the discourse’s outcome. Nonetheless, more than ever, the candidates’ statements will have less impact than their individual temperaments. Biden’s primary objective is to divert attention from his age and focus more on Trump’s personality. Theoretically, Biden’s assignment seems straightforward. However, in reality, it is far from easy. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.