The media and politicians have been incessantly discussing the possible timing of a general election for several months now. Do we have a voting date? Not quite yet. However, what was made clear this week is that Taoiseach Simon Harris intends to call an election, set to happen this year. Although his administration could have carried on until March 2025, he has opted to request a general election in the upcoming weeks. The exact date, however, remains undisclosed.
Why is the election being held now? The Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael/Green Party Coalition revealed the final Budget of its term earlier this month. Once the legislative approval is given to instigate the welfare increases and tax policies, the current Government’s final significant duty is completed. Discussions of a possible early general election began surfacing in June – after Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s surprising success in the local and European elections and Sinn Féin’s unexpected underperformance.
Simon Harris’s ascension as Fine Gael leader and his party’s surge of support in opinion polls, coupled with Sinn Féin’s decline, have only amplified the demand within his party for an early election. The promise of generous Budget benefits, like the duplicate welfare payments for child benefits in the upcoming weeks, merely added to this clamour.
Are the Taoiseach’s Coalition partners supportive of an early election? They are, indeed. Fianna Fáil and the Green Party are already in the throes of their election preparations. Green leader Roderic O’Gorman proposed Friday, November 29th, as a potential election date, which irked Fine Gael as the power to decide a date lays constitutionally with the Taoiseach. The three leaders convened on Monday and solidified that the election will transpire this year.
So, why is the election date still unannounced?
The run-up to the elections is already escalating but is anticipated to hit maximum velocity soon. The Coalition, however, is not particularly keen on a protracted campaign and has unfinished state affairs it wants to wrap up, such as the passing of the Finance Bill. Even though proceedings for the same will be expedited, it is predicted to take a fortnight at the minimum post-5th of November, coinciding with its re-introduction in the Oireachtas. The speculation is that the most plausible period for the elections would be the end of November, potentially the 22nd or 29th. The likelihood of holding elections on the 6th of December, the evening on which RTÉ airs the Late Late Toy Show, is comparatively slimmer.
Has the Taoiseach dropped any clues this week? Not really. As he prepared to enter a Cabinet meeting, he declared his preference for Friday elections. It seems he intends to keep people speculating for some more time.