Ireland’s inability to slash year-on-year carbon emissions carries significant implications for its economy due to consequent stricter restrictions being imposed on major sectors in order to reach targets by the tight deadline of 2030. Such a situation results directly from Ireland’s obligations under national climate agreements, including sector-based limits underpinned by carbon budgets. These budgets specify the maximum quantity of carbon that can be consumed in sectors like high-heat industries or farming and land use, for instance. This forms part of a global effort to arrest the rise in global temperatures.
This scenario is different from the potential hefty charges Ireland may face for compliance at EU level, which could include purchasing carbon credits from other EU nations progressing rapidly with decarbonisation. Among EU nations, Ireland ranks second to Luxembourg in per-person carbon emissions and 20th out of 27 in progress towards national reduction targets, as per the European Environment Agency.
Likely penalties for not fulfilling EU ‘effort sharing’ commitments, designed to lower overall EU emissions, could amount to billions of euros. This money could be diverted to other areas such as housing and the shift to a clean energy economy, bringing an end to price instability for users.
Current projections from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on greenhouse gases (GHGs) suggest a performance deterioration compared to the previous year. A multitude of sectors are either stagnating or making only minor emission reductions, despite a directive to cut emissions by half by 2030, relative to 2018.
In the first two years of 2021-2025, Ireland consumed 47% of its carbon budget, even though a 4.8% annual reduction was mandated for this period. This has necessitated a daunting 12.4% annual reduction for the remainder of the timeline up to 2030 to remain within budget limits. However, last year’s figures are expected to reflect a modest 4-5% reduction.
The EPA particularly highlighted the agricultural sector as a critical area.
Forecasted total emissions are set to reduce by a percentage ranging from 1 to 18 from 2022 through 2030, which is more negligible than the previously envisaged 25 per cent. Strategies targeting constraints on nitrogen fertiliser usage, adoption of alternative fertilisers and low-carbon feed additives constitute the main methods of achieving the savings. Although a “higher ambition scenario” incorporates the majority of the Government’s 2024 climate plan measures, as well as the AgClimatise and Teagasc’s MACC pathway initiatives, there remains a notable shortfall. Conversely, a diversification scheme, potentially resulting in lower livestock quantities, is currently on hold.
Transport
The carbon emissions from Dublin Airport are equivalent to those of 1.4 million cars annually. If the planned strategies and measures are acted upon, emissions are expected to decline by 26 per cent by 2030, though this is insufficient to meet the necessary reductions. These strategies include adopting more than 940,000 electric vehicles, increasing biofuel blend rates, and implementing initiatives for sustainable transport support. It is anticipated that, by the end of the decade, road freight will be the dominant source of road transport emissions. Due to the absence of supportive policy, the EPA did not factor in the impact of “avoid/shift” measures intended to decrease private car usage.
Energy
Emissions from power production saw a significant decrease of almost 24 per cent from 2022 to 2023 due to reduced fossil fuel use and increased net electricity importation through interconnectors. The energy sector, in conjunction with the planned growth in wind and solar power, predicts a 62 per cent drop in emissions, achieving beyond 80 per cent renewable electricity generation by 2030. This sector shows the most promise out of all the problematic areas, with a fair expectation of reaching targets given the execution of additional measures.
Land Use
However, emissions from land use are expected to increase drastically by 23 per cent to 99 per cent from the previous year to 2030 as forests mature for logging, transitioning from carbon absorbers to carbon emitters. Although strategies such as afforestation expansion, water table management, and peatland rehabilitation are planned to mitigate this increase, they are not yet taken into account.
In forecasting trends of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) employs a dual scenario approach. Initially, they use a “with existing measures” scenario, incorporating schemes that have been financed and supported by government and have well-defined routes to execution. Following that, they utilise a “with additional measures” scenario, reflective of plans that have been agreed upon, but lack funding allocation and legislative support. Essentially, this represents the most ideal situation. However, even when this approach is adopted, the vast majority of situations still present substantial emission shortfalls.