Just as one wouldn’t expect a significant life event such as a wedding, a significant holiday, or a house renovation to be financially feasible without a carefully curated budget being put together in advance, so is the case with Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions. A public and political misconception exists in thinking that the sole objective is to reduce our 2018 emissions total by 51 per cent by the last day of 2030. However, this is a misguided interpretation caused by the confusion between a final target date and the legally endorsed carbon budget approach outlined in the 2021 Climate Act. The law mandates compliance with five-year carbon budgets rather than achieving a predetermined figure by a certain target date.
Evidently, it’s easy to gain public and political support for a target date in 2030. It’s a widely recognized political strategy to defer dealing with challenging political issues. The subsequent government will bear the challenge of compliance, likely claiming that they inherited the issue. Present difficult decisions that could potentially lose votes can be delayed, and slight step-by-step decreases in emissions can be represented as advances.
The 2021 Climate Act references ‘2030’ just twice, both instances being guidelines for setting the two carbon budgets for the years 2021-2025 and 2026-2030. Conversely, the 2024 climate action plan mentioned ‘2030’ a staggering 413 times. Instead of adherence to two legally-required carbon budgets, the public perception has been built around 2030 as the pillar of climate policy. The year 2030 has become an enticing, vague future date, akin to the nebulous targets of ‘net zero by 2050’ that many public and private organisations are so fond of.
Although, delaying action will have repercussions. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently projected that based on current actions, we will surpass our initial carbon budget (2021-25) of 295 million tonnes by a surplus of 26 million tonnes. As a result, our subsequent carbon budget (2026-30) will need to be lowered by this excess, from 200 million tonnes down to 174 million tonnes. A further projected overshoot of 135 million tonnes is predicted for this second carbon budget.
The Climate Change Advisory Council is expected to present a finalised figure for the third carbon budget period (2031-35) later in 2021. As it stands, the provisional figure is capped at 151 million tonnes. Yet, if we consider the predicted excess of 135 million tonnes, a mere 16 million tonnes remains for the entire five-year period, relating to approximately three months of current emission rates. Optimistically incorporating extra measures only allows for a year’s worth of emissions, at the existing rate, within those five years. This leaves minimal room for adjustments and is fraught with risk. An attempt to modify the budget numbers could result in a serious breach of Ireland’s global commitments, such as the Paris Agreement entrenched in our 2021 Climate Act.
In instances where government fails to adhere to their own legislation, the public is entitled to demand justice. Such cases have emerged globally in recent times, including the “Swiss grannies” case and a case in UK where the high court deemed the government’s climate policy ineffective and in violation of their own Climate Change Act.
The cost of political lethargy can be monumental when the law intervenes. Notions such as “just transition” or “bringing the people with us” could become victims, as has been evidenced in international cases beyond Ireland. Another facet largely unknown to much of the public is the EU mandate to compensate for excess emissions by buying quotas from compliant countries with surplus emissions. These essentially represent significant fines, with taxpayer money redirected from Ireland to our EU counterparts. If the Environmental Protection Agency’s predictions materialise, the financial fallout for Irish taxpayers by 2030 could reach a staggering €5 billion, equating to the cost of constructing two children’s hospitals.
The information provided is from John Sweeney, an emeritus professor at the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS) at Maynooth University’s Geography department.