What is Derry’s next step from here? Following their recent triumph in the league this past Sunday, Derry has reached a familiar level of cruel simplicity that every year haunts Kerry and Dublin – anything less than an appearance at the All-Ireland final will be seen as a disappointing outcome, and the failure to win the Sam Maguire Cup would be devastating. This wasn’t necessarily the narrative prior to Sunday. Preceding the penalty shoot-out, one could dispute the stakes weren’t as high. There may be controversy over penalty deciding competitions, but that debate is futile now.
Would Derry’s championship prospects be viewed in the same light had they not emerged victorious? Assuming Con O’Callaghan lifted the cup from the hands of Jarlath Burns instead, it’s likely the answer is no. In this alternate reality, Derry would be lagging slightly behind an elite duo, crushed by the burden of nearly defeating the Dubs yet failing to do so. They would yet need to prove their worth with no assurances that they were capable of doing so.
However, clinching the win, even through penalties is a game changer. As the DJ decides to play ‘The Town I Love So Well’ from his repertoire of Croke Park’s most enchanting dirges soon after the final whistle, things are different already. Conor Glass accepting the trophy bashfully whilst the new president recounts his yearly achievements further changes the narrative. As league champions, Derry’s landscape has transformed.
Derry’s remaining challenge is the feat of placing Conor Glass on the Hogan Stand this coming July. With the championship week, which typically signifies the commencement of the summer’s magnificent Gaelic games showcase, looming, due to various changes, it’s known that the championship isn’t really starting this week.
The only competition that Derry will be evaluated on kicks off in six weeks, on a Saturday. Between now and that day, only two factors can change for Derry – 1) their position in the Sam Maguire draw, and 2) the situation they are in when the draw takes place.
At the moment, they are positioned in the third pot, holding the highest rank in the league. The consideration that arises now is if they feel compelled to aim for either the first or the second pot. Moreover, they need to determine whether such a transition would be justified, considering the potential consequences.
For Derry, is it crucial for them to maintain a robust momentum into the coming month in their quest for an additional Ulster title? They’ve already secured two consecutive wins which dragged into extra time during both finals, with the last one proceeding to penalties. Apart from upholding tradition, does any rational justification exist for taking up arms once more and bracing themselves for a challenging month that wouldn’t considerably influence their overall standing?
Derry’s victory over Ulster will require triumphing over Donegal in less than a span of three weeks, followed by either Tyrone, Cavan or Monaghan the subsequent weekend. Subsequently, they’ll probably face Armagh in the finale, once again. Although Derry surpasses each of these teams on an individual basis, the progressive damage heralded by each match is far from enjoyable.
The situation contrasts for Dublin and Kerry. For Dublin, the forthcoming six weeks involve participating in the Leinster championship with the strongest team on their draw being Meath – a team they haven’t been defeated by in over 15 years. For Kerry, they’re likely to face Cork in Killarney, a place where the visitors haven’t tasted victory since the mid-90s.
So, what’s the objective? How valuable is a provincial title? Judging by last year’s championship, the significance of taking home your local title for the Sam Maguire is arguably mediocre. A plausible reason to aim for this perhaps is to sidestep other provincial champions during the group stage, but given the hardship of being eliminated outnumbers the easiness of securing a place through your group, it likely doesn’t carry major importance.
What did the past year teach us? Owing to it being the early days of the newly structured championship, the amount of evidence is minuscule, thus inconclusive. Therefore, proceed with this data cautiously.
In 2023, only one of the victors from the provincial competitions managed to secure a victory in their first game of the group stages. Among the provincial winners, Kerry was defeated by Mayo, Derry tied with Monaghan, and Dublin had a stalemate with Roscommon. Armagh, however, emerged as the single runner-up from these provincial contests to claim a win in their inaugural match against Tailteann Cup victors, Westmeath. Even though eight teams enjoyed success at the provincial finals, only two achieved a victory in their subsequent match.
Interestingly, Galway, the lone provincial champion claiming an opening triumph in the Sam Maguire game, ironically became the first team to be ousted from the provincial victory circle. On the other hand, teams such as Monaghan, Mayo, Cork, and Tyrone, who were initially unsuccessful in their separate provinces, regrouped, recovered, and prepared extensively for the All-Ireland championship. Their readiness paid off as each achieved their finest performances for the year in May and June, precisely when crucial games were being played.
Nevertheless, none of these teams truly posed a threat for the All-Ireland title. And even under the most optimistic perspective, it’s tough to say any of them initially stood a strong chance. Particularly when compared to the expectations surrounding Derry this time around. The teams all took a flexible approach, adjusting their strategies as necessary until they reached their limit and had to exit the competition.
Unlike the rest, Derry has their strategy set. They are aware of their strongest line-up and their preferred style of play. They’ve bravely faced both Kerry and Dublin, and they are not the least bit intimidated by either. Ideally, they would compete in the All-Ireland final right away. That, of course, is not possible, and they must carefully navigate through the season, using their key resources at the right moment. It’s hard to conceive how a demanding Ulster campaign could contribute to this.
Now, the question is – what’s their next move? The upcoming month will indeed be critical.