In what could be seen as a significant turning point in the Ukraine war, Ukrainian forces made an unexpected advance into the Russian region of Kursk. Holding onto this new territory could prove beneficial for Ukraine in terms of diplomatic and military strength. Following a time where discussions of peace were met with hostility from Ukrainian war supporters and others, this tactical progress aids in paving a way for such negotiations. The war has been exerting immense pressure on Ukraine’s own military and civilian opposition to the invasion, particularly as outside assistance reaches its peak.
Significant signs of this predicament include the war’s stark imbalance, mercilessness, and the possibility of a prolonged duration. Both sides have seen harsh casualties, with approximately 600 Ukrainians succumbing each day and twice that number on the Russian side. The overwhelming 5:1 excess of equipment in Russia’s favour, offset to some degree with aid being directed to Ukraine from Europe and the US, and in contrast, Russia receiving military support from countries including China, Iran and North Korea.
Socially, there is a shift in Ukrainian public opinion regarding peace conversations, with 44 per cent in favour, 35 per cent against and 21 per cent undecided. Attitudes towards draft evasion are also evolving, as 46 per cent no longer view it as disgraceful, whilst 29 per cent do and 25 per cent remain uncertain. Furthermore, there are significant numbers evading or deserting it altogether. There’s a growing awareness of variations in these changing attitudes across different regions, social classes and political factions. It has also brought increased attention to issues like corruption, social inequality, media censorship, and the need for economic reformation and recovery, which must be confronted and cannot be deferred.
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Indications of waning external support for Ukraine can be inferred from a key survey undertaken across 15 European countries. The majority of Europeans anticipate that a peaceful resolution with Russia would be more probable than a comprehensive military success for Ukraine. The degree of backing varies significantly, with stronger support in northern countries and considerably weaker support in nations such as Italy, Bulgaria, and Romania. France and Germany lie somewhere in between the two extremes. There is no appreciable support for consigning troops to the region and while there is solid support, it is limited.
In conditions of imbalanced power, the entity with the lower hand necessitates cleverness and bravery to endure. In the United States, viewpoints are currently influenced by the potential triumph of Donald Trump. Yet, even the boldest neocon liberals of Biden’s administration acknowledge the requirement for negotiations with Russia, a matter evident in the recent prisoner exchange. Their endorsement for an elevated application of Nato-supplied weaponry against Russian objectives contrasts with the caution shown by President Biden, and this is undergoing rigorous examination within the Kursk operation.
Policy-makers in the EU and the US are becoming increasingly cognisant of the necessity to incorporate China and countries from the Global South into their Ukrainian strategies, this however, presents a challenging feat. The proposition by Russia and China for a more equally distributed global superpower status, conflicts with the US’s tenacity to uphold the current regime in which it plays the leading role.
Therefore, nations such as India, Brazil, Iran and Saudi Arabia maintain a neutral stance regarding the conflict. Reasons for this neutrality include their contempt for US backing of Israel’s destructive policies towards Gaza’s citizens and infrastructure. They also perceive the EU as being insufficiently critical of these actions. Any comparisons made as to the colonial victimhood of Israel and Ukraine are perceived as misguided.
The elite do not place much weight on the debate of democracy versus autocracy, whilst their citizens might think otherwise. The part China plays in Ukraine has potential transformativeness due to the influence it can impose on Russia and the fair deal it can offer to the Global South. Such benevolence is critical for Ukraine and the EU as security pledges are made to Ukraine.
Ukrainians are aware of this, as evidenced by their own peace-keeping initiatives and interactions with China. This is further indicated by President Zelenskiy’s statement that Russia would be invited to their forthcoming conference despite its absence from the one organised over the summer. There are whispers from Russia about a growing propensity to negotiate.
The necessary steps and likely elements of any peace discussions have been thoroughly planned. Acknowledgement of military states on the field without perpetuating them would be crucial during the negotiations. Russia and Ukraine would demand reliable security assurances. Elements such as language and minority rights, expenses for rebuilding, and ultimate territorial boundaries would necessitate advanced and internationally-monitored solutions.
Persistent resistance against the invasion from Ukraine has cemented strong European and US backing for the security measures required to safeguard its existence. This encompasses eventual EU inclusion and aid for reconstruction; but it stops short of joining Nato if a compromise is to be reached. Russia will demand this as a concession and has backing on this matter.
Guarantees for language rights and protections for minorities have related instances in the international arena that both sides can turn to for reference. The same goes for temporary and permanent border provisions.
In relations where power is unevenly distributed, the less powerful party needs to display intelligence and bravery to endure. Ukraine now needs to apply these unquestionable war-time achievements to broker a peace agreement.