Saturday’s release of three UK opinion polls painted a bleak future for Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party ahead of the July 4 general elections. Such dismal performances in the polls have led to predictions of “electoral extinction” for the party. With the election campaign over halfway through and party manifestos published, voters would soon start casting their postal votes.
Against the backdrop of no expectation of an early poll, Sunak’s May 22 announcement of early elections took many within his party by surprise. It was widely anticipated that he would postpone the election to later in the year to allow for a recovery in living standards post the record inflation of the previous 40 years.
Savanta’s market research revealed that support for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party had risen by two points to 46% from the prior poll conducted five days hence. Conversely, Conservative’s support dipped from 25% to 21%. The poll was conducted over a three-day period ending on June 14 for the Sunday Telegraph.
Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, saw Labour’s lead widen to 25 points, the largest ever since her tenure. Her tax-cut initiatives led to investors offloading UK government bonds, triggering a surge in interest rates and necessitating the Bank of England’s intervention.
As per Chris Hopkins, Savanta’s political research director, the polls are suggestive of the Conservative Party’s potential slide into oblivion in the upcoming elections.
In a separate poll conducted by Survation and published in the Sunday Times, there were forecasts of a dip in the number of seats won by the Conservative Party in the 650-member House of Commons down to a historical low of 72 seats. In contrast, Labour was projected to win 456 seats.
Including UK Reform Party, the Survation poll showed Labour at 40%, Conservatives at 24%, and Reform at 12%. A parallel poll conducted by Opinium showed similar percentages with Labour at 40%, Conservative at 23%, and Reform at 14%, indicating a shift in favour of smaller rivalry parties.
© Thomson Reuters 2024