The British government’s plan concerning Rwanda, due to its emblematic aspect, always had the potential for unpredictable fallout. The beleaguered Conservative party, led by Rishi Sunak, couldn’t possibly consider impeding the Illegal Migration Act – a law that permits the deportation of migrants and asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing and eventual settlement. Their political survival, especially with a looming election, mainly depends on exploiting anxieties about immigration and safety.
This strategy had been branded illegal by the UK Supreme Court, needing separate legislation – the Safety of Rwanda Act – to pass through Westminster recently. The maiden flight assigned for this program is set for June, having already managed to instigate unnecessary diplomatic tensions with Ireland.
Last month, comments by the Tánaiste, Micheál Martin, linking the plan to escalating migration from Northern Ireland, were pounced on by Sunak. His assertion was that the Act was functioning as designed, acting as a deterrent to those contemplating illicit entry into the UK.
Sunak’s reaction included a ludicrous proposal for Ireland to become part of this scheme. The suggestion exposed his priority as merely appeasing his domestic audience and not addressing the blowback on common travel provisions and post-Brexit agreements, expected to mutually benefit the nations and their citizens.
Sunak’s stance mirrored his reaction to Monday’s High Court ruling in Belfast, which necessitated that the Illegal Migration Act should be exempt in Northern Ireland due to its contradiction with the post-Brexit Windsor Framework – a mutual agreement between the UK and EU. This framework stipulates non-diminution of rights contained within the 1998 Belfast Agreement, inclusive of the European Convention on Human Rights.
The fallouts from Monday’s ruling will take time to unfold. The Democratic Unionist Party – with four of its MPs backing the Safety of Rwanda Act – has flagged potential influxes of migrants from Britain into Northern Ireland and an urgent need to prevent immigration barriers in the Irish Sea.
There’s a clear risk here that the newly reinstated Stormont Executive could be thrown into chaos due to these potential developments. The broader consequences for relations between the UK and Ireland, and the post-Brexit agreements between the UK and the EU, are also evidently problematic. Furthermore, an increase in migrants crossing the border into the Republic could be an unexpected repercussion.
Despite the ruling, Sunak has insisted that the government will lodge an appeal and continue with the Rwanda scheme. The government seems to be neglecting the larger implications of proceeding with this faulty strategy. Notably, this is symptomatic of a pattern where the UK either fails to acknowledge or dismisses the responsibilities mandated by the Belfast Agreement, irrespective of its choice to depart from the EU.