The imminent UK general election on July 4th offers a crucial juncture for reconfiguring the political dynamics between Westminster and Northern Ireland’s key factions. Relationships between the Conservative administration and Northern Ireland’s main parties have been fraught since the Brexit referendum of June 23, 2016, due to numerous reasons.
It’s evident that the Conservatives employed tactical manoeuvres during the Brexit dialogues involving Northern Ireland. Boris Johnson, the then British Prime Minister, assured unionists of no borders between Britain and Northern Ireland, only to later arrange for customs and regulatory checks along the Irish Sea in an agreement signed in October 2019.
Brexit has highly destabilised the scenario, highlighted by the total five year closure of the Stormont government in two separate instances post the 2016 referendum. The governing Conservative Party has further demonstrated its ignorance towards Northern Ireland, proposing a mandatory national service for 18-year olds that includes Northern Ireland, astonishingly ignoring nationalism’s impact on their decision.
The Labour Party is projected to score a sweeping victory in the July 4th election, according to all reliable surveys. Northern Ireland’s shadow secretary of state, Hilary Benn, has demonstrated an intent to interact with both the nationalist and unionist communities, also reflecting a shift towards a growing non-aligned middle ground. Although Labour won’t overturn the Brexit result, the party aims to foster more constructive rapport with the European Union, potentially yielding favourable results for Northern Ireland as part of the Windsor Framework, which allows it to access both the UK’s internal and the EU’s single market for goods.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is likely to face a tough election, particularly with its former leader Jeffrey Donaldson in the midst of legal controversies over historical sexual abuse allegations. Additionally, the announcement that Naomi Long, Alliance party’s leader, will vie for the Belfast East seat could create significant barriers for Gavin Robinson, DUP’s acting leader, in maintaining his position.
Sinn Féin looks set to win the majority of MP positions in the upcoming July election, due to a divided unionist vote, potentially making them the largest party in the Stormont Assembly, local council, and Westminster. This achievement would be unprecedented. Sinn Féin has not shown any signs of changing its abstentionism policy, but it will likely need to cultivate a positive rapport with Labour in order to function effectively. Similarly, the DUP and other northern political parties must do the same. Northern Ireland’s politics have stagnated in recent years, negatively impacting public services. The inhabitants of Northern Ireland deserve more, and a Labour government could represent the new beginning they need.