The fluctuating sentiments of Irish electorates have indeed made headlines in recent electoral seasons, with political instability and the ongoing housing crisis greatly affecting the popularity of the main political parties – Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin. The traditional loyalty to political parties has been largely discarded by numerous voters, and unanticipated campaign incidents can significantly influence the election results. Hence, correctly forecasting the outcome of the imminent general elections (speculated to take place as early as November) is a tricky business.
However, two potential ‘bellwether’ constituencies might provide some insight into the future shape of the Dáil – Dublin Bay North and Carlow-Kilkenny. Parliamentary seats in these two regions have seen a high turnover recently, with five incumbent TDs either stepping down or moving to Europe. National preference trends for political parties may be more transparently reflected through the vote count in these areas since new faces on the ballot papers replace the incumbents.
These are both five-seat constituencies that also provide an opportunity for smaller factions and potentially independent candidates. Nevertheless, if they hope to govern, the top three parties must secure at least a duo of seats in similar constituencies.
Let’s now take a brief look at the current situation. Dublin Bay North is predominantly urban with a mix of wealthy and underprivileged areas where housing is a pressing issue. It recently saw immigration become a discussion point due to public unrest, occasionally violent, over government plans to establish a refugee centre in Coolock.
However, this should not be blown out of proportion – far-right candidates failed to secure any seats in local elections here in June. It does warrant attention, though. Mainstream political parties have been subject to harsh criticism from those fuelling anti-immigrant feelings, potentially weakening their political base.
The Coolock-based Sinn Féin TD, Denise Mitchell, who is presumed to contest in the elections, is likely to maintain her seat. Her victory was resounding during the 2020 constituency party elections, securing a record 21,344 first-preference votes, the nation’s highest by any candidate.
A significant setback for Sinn Féin would come if a colleague from the same party, possibly Donaghmede councillor Micheál MacDonncha, fails to secure a victory this time around. Three standing members from other parties will not participate in the elections. These include Richard Bruton of Fine Gael and Seán Haughey of Fianna Fáil, who are retiring, and Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, recently elected to the European Parliament in June.
Cian O’Callaghan, a representative from the Social Democrats, is in a strong position to retain his seat. Meanwhile, Fine Gael has put forth councillors Naoise Ó Muirí and Aoibhinn Tormey as candidates, which provides a geographically diverse ticket.
There are several potential Fianna Fáil contenders, including city councillors Deirdre Heney, Tom Brabazon, Daryl Barron, and Cathal Haughey, a Fingal councillor and descendant of former Taoiseach Charles Haughey.
If O’Callaghan and representatives from the three major parties manage to hold onto their seats, the race for the fifth seat will be heavily contested.
A yet-to-be-announced Labour candidate will compete for Ó Ríordáin’s seat, against Green Party representative David Healy and representatives from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin, all of whom are keen on securing a second seat.
In this competition, independent Councillor Barry Heneghan, is backed by former local Independent TD Finian McGrath. A win for an independent candidate could signal a growing trend of non-party representatives being elected nationwide.
In regions like Carlow-Kilkenny, issues such as housing are vital, notably in Kilkenny city and neighbouring Carlow towns. Equally important is sustaining support for farmers in rural locales. Here, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been traditional powerhouses, often engaging in a showdown over the years.
In their respective alliances, the current coalition members may benefit from inter-partner transfers. Sinn Féin faces a predicament with the loss of their dependable TD from Kilkenny, Kathleen Funchion, who won the MEP elections this summer. The party is yet to choose its candidates.
Sinn Féin has a presence with three councillors within the two counties, namely Andy Gladney and Jim Deane in Carlow, and Stephanie Doheny in Kilkenny, although none are as widely recognised as Funchion. Capturing two seats may prove challenging, amidst decreased national party support.
Fianna Fáil retains two incumbent TDs, Jennifer Murnane O’Connor from Carlow who’s already chosen to run, and John McGuinness from Kilkenny, who is anticipated to be selected. A third candidate might be running from the party.
John Paul Phelan, the TD from Fine Gael will not be standing in the upcoming elections. In his place, two Kilkenny councillors, David Fitzgerald and Micheal Doyle, alongside Catherine Callaghan from Carlow have been nominated. The party aims to secure at least one seat per county, a feat they haven’t achieved yet.
The Green Party’s success outside of Dublin can be gauged by the performance in this constituency. Junior minister Malcolm Noonan, a long-standing elected representative from Kilkenny, has a potentially good shot at retaining his seat. If unsuccessful, this could spell trouble for the party in the regional areas.
There could be windows of opportunity for minor parties or independent candidates to seize seats in areas such as Dublin Bay North and Carlow-Kilkenny. Nevertheless, as the election approaches, it’s the fortunes of the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin candidates in these areas which will garner significant attention.
These outcomes might provide insights into the composition of the impending government.