Unexpected triumph was recorded by Turkey’s opposition parties during the recent local elections where they outperformed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party, building upon their achievements in councils from five years ago. The most notable outcome was the success of the central left-aligned Republican People’s Party (CHP), who retained control over Istanbul and Ankara by a considerable margin, and also emerged victorious in traditionally conservative regions like Adiyaman in Southern Turkey.
The CHP managed to secure wins in 35 out of the 81 provinces in the country, inclusive of its five most populous cities. Meanwhile, President Erdogan’s Islamic-focused Justice and Development Party (AKP) could only capture 24 remaining provinces.
In terms of the nationwide vote, after almost all votes were counted, the CHP captured 37.7% of the votes, while the AKP managed to secure only 35.5%. This surprise outcome came just 10 months after a major disillusioning defeat was witnessed by the opposition in last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections.
Seda Demiralp, a political-science professor at Isik University in Istanbul, referred to recent event as an unprecedented and momentous occurrence. The CHP is not the opposition party but it’s capturing local municipalities, indicating a clear message from Turkish voters against Erdogan’s AK Party government.
This year’s voter turnout was approximately 78%, compared to the previous year’s 87%, with the state-run Anadolu Agency suggesting it was primarily supporters of the AKP who didn’t vote, according to Mr Demiralp.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund located in Ankara, identified the results as being spectacular compared to President Erdogan’s two decades in power. This can be declared as a landslide victory in CHP’s favour, leading AKP in the polls for the first time ever.
Southeast Turkey witnessed victories for the pro-Kurdish Equality and Democracy Party in 10 provinces, while the Erdogan-associated Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) took eight scattered across the country.
The New Welfare Party (YRP), a conservative party often seen as a competitor to the AKP, successfully won two provinces in the recent election. YRP managed to amass 6.2% of the nationwide votes, making them the third largest party in the country. The remaining two provinces fell under the rule of the IYI Party and the Great Unity Party.
Before the election, many were predicting that the opposition perform poorly due to the disappointing outcome of the previous year. A significant leadership change within the CHP, replacing 75-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu with the younger Ozgur Ozel, 49, seemed to rejuvenate the party, subsequently leading to substantial wins for standing CHP mayors and other candidates.
Analysts have attributed the opposition’s success to the strong contenders they put forward – Ekrem Imamoglu for Istanbul and Mansur Yavas for Ankara; who were not outflanked by their AKP opponents, whose influence was mostly overshadowed by Mr Erdogan during the campaign. Mr Imamoglu achieved an impressive 11-point lead while Mr. Yavas outperformed his AKP contender by almost 29 points. These results have greatly increased Imamoglu’s chances of becoming a serious contender for the 2028 presidency.
In a country like Turkey, where institutions often lack power, Mr. Demiralp says, “Leadership is taking precedence over parties and ideologies, as people are more likely to connect with strong leaders rather than parties or other institutions.”
Sunday’s election took place amidst an ongoing cost-of-living crisis, where voters are grappling with an inflation surge of 67% in February. Despite this, Mr Erdogan has chosen to increase borrowing costs to a substantial 50% to fight rapidly rising prices. Observers noted that even though the economic turmoil did not severely affect Mr Erdogan’s popularity during last year’s national elections, AKP voters were more open to expressing their dissatisfaction when his name was absent from the ballot paper.
Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the New York-based consultancy, Teneo, stated that “The soaring inflation, arrogance, subpar candidates, a lacklustre electoral campaign, and being outmaneuvered by its former ally – the New Welfare Party – are the main reasons for the AKP’s defeat.”