After an extended nine-hour session of discussions, Donald Trump’s fellow citizens on a jury declared him culpable of 34 criminal charges on Thursday. These charges relate to the concealment of “hush money” used to silence an adult film actor’s claims about an alleged out-of-marriage affair, just prior to the 2016 election. The reputed Republican representative was predominantly exposed to similar judicial measures as any other criminal offender in Manhattan. However, his conviction stands out as unparalleled in American history and raises several unique legal and political queries with the forthcoming November election.
But what could unfold from here?
Will Trump face prison time?
The likelihood of Trump going to prison is quite low. The crimes he was convicted for—“falsifying business records”—are considered the least severe felonies in the New York state system, punishable by a maximum of four years imprisonment. Incarceration is uncommon for a novice offender with a clean criminal record who commits a non-violent administrative violation, particularly someone of Trump’s age—77.
Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan District Attorney who initiated the case, has shown no indication of seeking a prison sentence for Trump. Bragg stated his office would “express its intents through its official documents” and at the upcoming sentencing hearing, set for July 11th.
Justice Juan Merchan might impose other penalties, such as probation and monetary fines. While deciding on the suitable punishment, Merchan could also “consider the defendant’s conduct during the trial”, as former Manhattan prosecutor Tanisha Palvia puts it, and the fact that Trump breached a court-ordered gag order on multiple occasions by targeting witnesses and jurors.
Is a convicted felon allowed to run for President?
The American Constitution has no provision prohibiting a convicted criminal from running for a federal office role. Earlier this year, the supreme court rejected a bid in the state of Colorado to ban Trump from the ballot, arguing that he incited an uprising. The court ruled that such a decision should be left to Congress.
There may be complications if Trump, post-incarceration, outperforms the current president, Joe Biden, in the November elections. A potential conundrum, albeit not a constitutional crisis in itself, is suggested by Alex Reinert, a Criminal Law academic at the Cardozo School of Law. He posited that according to constitutional logic, Trump’s sentencing might be postponed until after his term, given that it’s universally recognised a president couldn’t deliver on his constitutional duties from behind bars.
What about this convicted felon’s voting rights?
This is contingent on the laws of the state where they were convicted and if they’re currently imprisoned. According to New York legislation, Trump wouldn’t forfeit his voting rights unless imprisoned, and even then could vote pre or post his sentence. Interestingly, he can also vote in Florida, his state of residence, that usually deprives convicted felons of their voting rights, but this doesn’t apply to those convicted in states that uphold their voting rights.
Can he challenge the verdict?
“Trump’s legal team, if remunerated, will undoubtedly lodge a plea to overturn the judgement,” Catherine Christian, a previous employee with over three decades service in the Manhattan District Attorney’s office confirmed. This plea is likely to be rejected, but the ex-president can then approach a New York Intermediate Appellate Court, followed by its highest authority, the Court of Appeals. The grounds for appeal could include questions around the admissibility of Michael Cohen’s testimony, Trump’s former lawyer and convicted perjurer.
Christian inferred that given the novelty of the allegations around falsifying business records and its link to wider election violation, this may be an avenue Trump’s legal team will explore. There may also be an opportunity to target perceived failings in the prosecution’s case. Palvia suggested that if the jury’s discretion to select from three suggested underlying crimes that Trump allegedly sought to hide without declaring which one, was deemed incorrect by an Appellate Court, the entire judgement could collapse.
The entire appeals process is expected to be lengthy and may not conclude before election time.
What if he’s re-elected, can Trump pardon himself?
The legal case was instigated at a state level, not by federal prosecutors. Thus, the authority to grant pardons for infringements of New York State law belongs to the Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, a member of the Democratic party who is set to remain in power until 2027. Following the verdict, she gave no indication that she intended to offer clemency; instead, she affirmed that nobody is exempt from legal accountability.
What of Trump’s other legal confrontations?
Trump is embroiled in two distinct instances of alleged election tampering — a state case and a federal case — each stemming from his alleged endeavour to obfuscate the 2020 election outcome, in addition to unrelated federal accusations revolving around the alleged unauthorised possession of classified documents.
It appears unlikely that any of these cases will be brought to trial ahead of the next election, due to the effective maneuvering of Trump’s legal representatives to deter proceedings through a series of motions and appeals. Nonetheless, his conviction in New York does give other judges the discretion to arrange a trial prior to election day if they wish, without concern for overlapping with the Manhattan legal venture.
– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.