When Donald Trump, the former President of the United States, invited Prime Minister Viktor Orban to his Mar-a-Lago estate earlier this month, he showered him with accolades, describing the Hungarian leader as a superb figurehead for Europe. Their evening at the resort included a members-only concert featuring tribute performances to iconic bands such as the Beatles and Rolling Stones.
However, in the quieter hours of the afternoon, the two leaders retired to a secluded dining area for a private conversation. Accompanying Trump were David Cornstein, the former US ambassador to Budapest, Susie Wiles, the chief political strategist of his campaign, and Fred Fleitz, previously associated with the National Security Council during Trump’s tenure, now affiliated with the America First Policy Institute (AFPI). This institute, established in 2021, was designed to foster and project Trump’s political vision.
Fred Fleitz reveals that Trump and Orban found common ground on an array of issues, most notably immigration.
This gathering offers a glimpse into Trump’s political realm as he ventures into the 2024 presidential race. Although Trump’s campaign often appears sporadically driven, defined by sharp speech centred around vengeance and ongoing legal predicaments, there is a trace of unwavering determination beneath his pursuit of the presidency. Currently leading in the polls against Joe Biden, his campaign is supported by an elite team of experienced campaigners and former officials eager to actualise his vision.
Trump’s first bid for presidency in 2016 was characterised as a campaign by a political outsider, bereft of governing experience or backing from Washington or within the Republican Party. Even though he ignited trade wars and sparked uncertainty over the US’s allegiance to NATO, his more radical inclinations were kept in check by key Republican figures.
However, the 2024 version of Trump promises a drastic shift from previous party ideologies. His prospective policies include larger tariffs than before, a more assertive stance on immigration, and advocating for Ukraine to reconcile with Russia. Trump further threatens to reform the federal judiciary and bureaucracy, a move criticised by many as an indication of an increased authoritarian tendency in his potential second term.
Whether Trump is capable of implementing these measures greatly relies on his alliance of advisers, contributors, and media supporters.
The major change from his initial foray into politics lies in his team. In 2017, Trump thought it necessary to incorporate hesitant members of the Republican elite into his administration. However, as of now, he can count on a solid group of seasoned aides who have remained loyally dedicated to the former president. Additionally, he now enjoys the support of a political party structure that has been moulded in his likeness.
“It’s going to be a lot more impactful,” comments Steve Bannon, Trump’s former political advisor and right-leaning media presenter, who continues to be a close external ally. He contrasts the 2016 campaign, characterised by a “theoretical” approach and a chaotic setup, with the present situation where Trump has a vast team of individuals “raring to go”.
“His speeches are all packed with stuff he’s going to do,” he points out. “It might not be lofty oratory, but in terms of content, it’s there. People need to realise these aspects are being worked on and refined. Those policies will be put into practice.”
Bannon further says he is being frank about his plans: “Trump is not concealing his game plan.”
This insight into Trump’s revamped inner circle came from conversations with over a dozen individuals closely or loosely associated with the 2024 campaign. Many chose not to be named, but they all paint a picture of a squad eager to spring into action if they clinch power.
Traditional Republican leaders have either embraced him as their flag-bearer, or they’ve been pushed aside. They are less able to impose the same sort of organisational and policy boundaries on a second Trump administration as they did on the first.
“The world we’re in is different now,” states Michael Beschloss, a historian of the presidency. “[Trump] is aware a lot of these people are put off by his support of the January 6th rebels and turned off by his comments about autocracy. This is why he has largely discarded them, opting for those who appear loyal to him and his current interests.”
At last month’s Conservative Political Action Conference, Trump hinted what his tactics would be if he manages to beat Biden in November.
The two main facets of his strategy are, firstly, a radical right-wing agenda to overturn numerous actions by Biden in the last three years; secondly, he is on a mission of reprisal against his political rivals, accusing them of using the US justice system to victimise him.
“November 5th will be a day of liberation for all diligent Americans,” he announced to a gathering of his devotees and activists at CPAC. “On that day, those who have illegitimately seized our government – the con artists, censors, deceivers and fraudsters – will face judgement.”
After stepping down from presidency in January 2021, Trump withdrew to his Mar-a-Lago resort, making it his sanctuary during a brief spell of political solitude. However, he kept his connections with allies on Capitol Hill intact and continued to gather the backing of several ex-officials from his former administration who are central to his quest for another term this year.
Despite being a mixed bag of brusque and amiable characters, his inner circle displays unwavering personal allegiance to Trump. Both the ex-President and his associates are more adept in navigating the politics of Washington, and less likely to get bogged down by seasoned bureaucrats, mainstream Republican figures or Congressional critics.
Republican strategist Doug Heye notes that Trump, who earlier had to approach unfamiliar faces due to a lack of team, now has an internal squad and is in sync with the Republican government. “During his earlier term, Trump had to rely on outsiders he hadn’t interacted with before. Now he has compelling support from within.”
Those who are familiar with Trump’s workings acknowledge that Stephen Miller, a key adviser during Trump’s reign and an advocate of strict immigration laws, and Robert Lighthizer, the ex-US trade representative responsible for major trade confrontations with China, the EU and others, are among those in close proximity to the former president.
The Center for American Security at AFPI, where Fleitz is the vice-chair, is now the hub for two of Trump’s primary advisers on national security. Some are linked with both new and established Washington-based think-tanks that have shown support to Trump and his ideologies in the last few years, and aim to join his administration if he is successful – a network that was absent in 2017.
Keith Kellogg, a retired US Army lieutenant general and ex-NSC member during Trump’s term, is a flagbearer for what was previously Trump’s administration. Kellogg, who was recently at the helm of an AFPI delegation to Israel, is critical of Biden’s approach towards the Ukraine-Russia dispute, particularly for not fostering peace talks. Similarly, John Ratcliffe, a former Texas town mayor who went on to serve in Congress and as Trump’s national intelligence director, is another key influencer.
From an economic perspective, significant roles are played by former economic advisors Kevin Hassett and Russ Vought. Still, Trump occasionally engages with other figures, including Larry Kudlow and Stephen Moore of the Heritage Foundation.
Trump seeks to oust what he terms as “rogue bureaucrats” from the civil service – entailing a large-scale pruning of the federal government and judiciary to excise those not aligning with his agenda. Expected to be instrumental in this move are Miller and Matt Whitaker, former acting assistant attorney general.
Miller is also crucial in Trump’s proposition to completely close the US-Mexico border and repatriate undocumented immigrants, possibly using military resources for detention. This marks an increase in intensity from his initial term’s strict immigration policies.
When it comes to trade, Trump is suggesting rebooting trade wars by implementing a universal 10% tariff on imports, a 60% duty on Chinese goods, and a distinct 100% tax on Chinese vehicles entering the US via Mexico.
However, the execution of these plans is dependent on Trump, whose decision-making can be unsteady, often influenced by his most recent interactions.
Lanhee Chen, a scholar at the Hoover Institution and once an aide to Mitt Romney during his 2012 Presidential run, suggests the real motifs of the Trump movement may not be clear due to various groups purportedly representing them. However, she maintains that ultimately it’s Trump who makes the final call.
If Trump’s second term as president does happen, credit will likely go to the political strategists, Wiles and Chris LaCivita, of the campaign who have managed to bypass the internal discord and high staff turnover seen in previous campaigns. They affirm that Trump is the driving force behind setting objectives and pacing, and their role is simply to ensure these are carried out.
Over the past year, Trump’s leverage within the Republican Party within Congress has grown stronger, potentially shaping how he could govern if he secures a second term. Should he triumph, the driving power could lead to the Republicans securing control of both houses. In his last term, there were those like Paul Ryan, the ex-Republican House speaker, and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who did not always conform to his desires, but that has since evolved.
Last year, Trump managed to position Mike Johnson, a somewhat unknown congressman from Louisiana but an ally, as the House speaker. Concurrently, McConnell is resigning from his leadership position, with a successor more favourable to Trump expected to take the reins. Critics such as Romney and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are sparse.
According to Brian Ballard, a lobbyist based in Florida and a close associate of Trump, even those who were initially hesitant are now firmly supportive of his second term. There’s a sense of acceptance and anticipation for what it could entail.
He has also acted swiftly to take command of the national party structure. Earlier this month, he orchestrated the replacement of Ronna McDaniel with Michael Whatley, the previous party leader in North Carolina, as chair of the Republican National Committee. Furthermore, he was successful in getting his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, to share the chair of the RNC, allowing him an easier path to direct party resources towards his political requirements – and perhaps even his legal expenses – rather than candidates in lower-level congressional and state elections.
Lara Trump, Eric Trump’s wife, is viewed as an active player in the former president’s latest political venture, alongside Donald Trump Jr, the elder son. Yet, regardless of the display of consolidated support for Trump, it’s clear that his past actions have strained relationships with key individuals from his previous administration and this might even lead some to refrain from voting for him.
An example of this is Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice-president, who stood against Trump’s wishes to certify the 2020 election results and recently expressed his opposition to the former president’s return to the White House. John Bolton, previously national security adviser and US ambassador under George W Bush, along with Mark Esper, Trump’s prior defence secretary, and John Kelly, Trump’s ex White House chief of staff, have all publicly voiced criticisms.
The potential for a second Trump term would hinge upon the personnel choices made post-election victory. Typical successful presidential campaigns undergo a transition as they extend past the candidate’s trusted group.
However, Bannon suggests that changes in staff or policy may not be drastic, stressing that Trump essentially knows what his goals are and who can facilitate their accomplishment. According to a previous Trump official, while the former president is open to individuals with differing views – if he respects them – he doesn’t want to employ people who will undermine his agenda.
On international affairs, there are talks of some recognizable faces being considered for top positions. These include Robert O’Brien, the past national security adviser who maintains his support for Trump and could be a candidate for a high-profile role. Though Trump expressed doubt about aid to Ukraine, his previous secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, isn’t necessarily dismissed, believe some insiders. Richard Grenell, the former US ambassador to Germany, could reappear, and notable senators like Marco Rubio from Florida and Bill Hagerty from Tennessee are also potential candidates.
As economic matters come to the fore, speculation is rife about whether Trump would select a Wall Street benefactor for the Treasury Secretary position, akin to his 2017 choice, Steven Mnuchin. There is also speculation about Trump’s potential nominee to succeed Jay Powell, the current Federal Reserve Chair, whose term concludes in 2026. High-flying hedge fund managers such as John Paulson, Jeff Yass, and Scott Bessent, along with Hassett, could be considered for pivotal economic roles.
Commenting on a potential Treasury Secretary in a prospective second term, Moore of Heritage observes: “Trump appreciates financial and business success.”
Jason Miller, a senior counsellor to Trump, dismisses such speculation as being too early. He advises that there will be an appropriate time to deliberate upon key roles in a possible second term, but that time hasn’t arrived yet.
Michael Strain, who heads up economic policy research at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, anticipates more consistency than upheaval in terms of the team leading the campaign between the first and a potential second Trump tenure. However, he is apprehensive about what he sees as ill-advised policies and ethically questionable remarks.
Having fervent supporters as part of a campaign is nothing unusual, but Strain finds it odd for such enthusiasts to advocate for a 60% import tariff or mass expulsion of millions of undocumented immigrants residing here.
In the opinion of Elaine Kamarck from the Brookings Institution, in a second term, the White House team might be more proficient and keen to accommodate Trump’s affairs. She, however, maintains her belief in the US mode of governance, which includes separate judicial and legislative powers, as a shield against Trump’s perceived escalating autocracy.
In light of the rise of Trump, the first so-called potential dictator in American history, Kamarck insists on returning to principles laid out by the founding fathers. They designed a system intentionally cumbersome and slow to prevent the rise of individuals like Trump. According to her, this system successfully safeguards against such individuals. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.