In a recent statement, Donald Trump emphatically declared he had no plans to offload his stake in Truth Social. Is he genuine about it? It wouldn’t be wise to jump to conclusions. In fact, investors are harbouring their own scepticism. Trump’s declaration caused a short-lived 25% increase in the value of shares, but they quickly plummeted to new lows.
Although it could be that Trump was sincere, constant media coverage suggests that Truth Social’s stock price mirrors Trump’s chances in the upcoming election. The conventional wisdom being that if Trump faces defeat in November, the share price will plunge, whereas a victory could send it rocketing.
With regards to Budget 2025 and its impact on Irish families and businesses, if Trump is confident of a favourable outcome, then he might expect the share price to soar. However, he could be cautious of cashing out prior to the election to avoid damaging headlines and accusations of capitalising on the losses of small investors. Nonetheless, the supposed correlation between Truth Social’s share value and Trump’s political destiny appears to be more fiction than fact.
Since reaching a peak in April, the stock has been on a steady downward trajectory, with the value down 80%. Although an assassination attempt on Trump in July caused a temporary spike, it was short-lived and followed swiftly by new lows.
Despite a relentless drop in share price, nonsensically, Truth Social is still valued at an eye-watering $3.1 billion. In the second quarter, the company just managed to generate $836,900 (€759,000) in revenue. Victory for Trump in November could cause a temporary increase in stock value, but it’s likely to be fleeting. Ultimately, Truth Social’s future doesn’t hinge on the election come November, but rather on the stark reality of its underlying financial health.