Alexander Vindman, a former national security advisor to ex-president Donald Trump, has warned that Trump’s potential re-election might exacerbate the Ukraine war rather than concluding it. Vindman, known for his testimony during Trump’s first impeachment by Congress in 2019 and his status as a top Ukraine specialist in the US National Security Council during Trump’s rule, is set to speak at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Ireland. He plans to discuss the war between Russia and Ukraine, correspondingly examining its roots, execution, and geopolitical implications.
Trump has indicated that his presidency victory in November would expedite the cessation of the war by discontinuing US military assistance to Ukraine before assuming office. Vindman, who relocated to America from Ukraine as a child, interprets this as an obstacle to peace. He argues that eliminating US military support won’t cease the fighting regarded by Ukrainians as a struggle for existence; instead, it would morph the war into a relentless struggle. Here, Russia would capitalize on its resource superiority, while Ukraine would persist in its resistance.
Vindman anticipates that Ukraine’s neighbours, fearing Russia might target them next, might support Ukraine by deploying their soldiers. He says this wouldn’t be an initiative undertaken as part of NATO, but through bilateral accord, the purpose would be to aid Ukraine, not to wage war in their homelands.
Vindman believes the key to ending the war lies in negotiation following battlefield victories for Ukraine. He asserts that the reappointment of a Democrat administration could compel Russian President Putin to the negotiation table by creating considerable stress on his government. The integration of these elements might drive “robust” peace talks in the second half of 2025, as per Vindman.
In order to withstand the pressure of Russian aggression, Ukraine is advised to strengthen its military power and prepare for a large counterstrike in the coming summer. The recommendations include difficult decisions such as reducing the national service recruitment age from 25 to 18 years old. Furthermore, a greater portion of the country’s industry should be focused on the war campaign and be aligned with the strategies from their western allies. The prospect of peace discussions potentially restoring borders to those existing pre-2022 is a possibility, suggesting Ukraine could reclaim some territories within the Donbas region currently under Russian occupancy. However, the reclamation of Crimea, solidly under Russian control, is likely not up for discussion in peace negotiations which traditionally do not cater to all parties’ desires.
It has been suggested by Vindman that the foreign policy under Trump could be isolationist, a suggestion reinforced by the appointment of Ohio’s Senator JD Vance as a running mate. Several western governments harbour concern that Trump may not uphold the mutual defence agreements outlined in Article 5 of the Nato treaty, or may even sever ties to the defence association entirely. Vindman noted that while an outright withdrawal might not occur, there’s a strong likelihood the U.S. could choose to abstain from a crisis rather than directly withdraw. He further emphasized how such an action could lead to dire global consequences.
Leaving Nato would provide Putin with chances to challenge the determination of the remaining alliance members. Vindman also highlighted that there’s a good chance Putin would take advantage of such a situation. He noted that another term for Trump as president could expose Ireland to greater risks, despite it not being a Nato member. He suggested that Russia, with its history of implementing active measures in Ireland, including backing various militant factions in Northern Ireland, could look to exploit potential vulnerabilities such as the recent Russian naval activity in Irish-controlled waters off the western coast.
In America, Vindman stated that Trump’s re-election odds in November are bolstered by his complete sway over “a portion of the population” and a perceived general public lack of interest in the election.
“Trump’s core supporters, known as the Maga constituency, will stand by him regardless of the situation,” he commented. “Determining the victor of the forthcoming election will hinge on appealing to the disgruntled segment of the audience who can swing the vote.
“This majority is representative of the heart of America. These individuals, despite America’s economic growth and abundant prosperity, have been overlooked.”
The current Vice-president, Kamala Harris, has a chance of overcoming Trump if she “strategically moves towards a moderate stance and constructs a roadmap to assist the middle and working classes,” he stated.
Eugene Vindman, brother of our source, who also partook in the National Security Council during the upheaval surrounding Trump and Ukraine, is currently pushing for a seat in the House of Representatives on behalf of the Democratic party.
Our insider clarified he has no personal intentions of entering the race, as he feels he can mobilise more support for Ukraine from outside the constraints of Congress.