The Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, who once won the nation’s heart with his promise of “sunny ways”, is now confronting his most critical and precarious political juncture as he endeavours to outwit the circumstances – and public dissatisfaction – to secure an uncommon fourth term in office. Despite facing internal pressures from several party members demanding his resignation, and an external threat from a separatist party aiming to undermine the Liberal Party’s frail grip on power, Trudeau seems to be maintaining his stance.
A group of Liberal MPs, nearly a score in number, penned a letter just a week ago, urging Trudeau to relinquish his role in the face of growing concerns within the party about his declining popularity potentially causing a catastrophic electoral failure in the forthcoming months. This letter is distinct from a “code red” petition to party members at the grassroots level, seeking a confidential ballot vote regarding Trudeau’s leadership.
Unperturbed, Trudeau, now in his ninth year as prime minister, assured reporters during the previous week of the wholehearted support he enjoys from the majority of the 153 House of Commons’ Liberal Party Members. He also added that any substantial discussions concerning future strategies would ensue under his leadership as they approach the next election.
Nevertheless, political analysts believe that this internal uproar, which has been escalating in recent times, will undoubtedly leave an imprint on Trudeau, who has been compelled to confront the harshest critique of his leadership, from his own peers, so far.
Scott Reid, an advisor and former Communications Director for ex-Liberal Prime Minister, Paul Martin, likened the scenario to an “iceberg revolt”. He suggested that the deeper, unseen part could be massive, and it’s likely to be posing an intimidating situation for the prime minister, even if he doesn’t acknowledge it publicly or privately.
For those in the party striving to displace Mr Trudeau, Canadian history doesn’t offer much solace. There isn’t a single instance where a Prime Minister has willingly left their position in the country, according to Mr Reid. Rather, they tend to face election defeat or only step down at the last moment after exhausting every chance at victory. An apparent successor for the Prime Minister’s role is not in sight.
Mark Carney, the ex-Governor of the Bank of England, has subtly indicated that he might be open to vying for the party’s leadership. On the other hand, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly possesses pivotal qualifications from Quebec province, which is an essential victory for the Liberals. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, recognised for his political acumen and astute intuition, is another potential contender. However, none have openly declared their interest in the prime role.
With the Liberal Party approaching ten years in power, a completely open leadership contest would still have to overcome the challenge of projecting an image of dynamism and fervour to the public. Regardless, it seems most contenders would be in a superior position than Mr Trudeau.
Mr Reid commented that “Public sentiment against the government has entrenched, maybe unjustly, specifically against the Prime Minister.” He added that Mr Trudeau’s intractability to indicate or seek any alteration to the status quo might be why some members of the party are uneasy. Mr Trudeau typically acts as a magnet for nationwide dissatisfaction.
CBC’s poll tracker indicates the Liberals are nearly 20 points behind the opposing Conservatives, a deficit almost unheard of for the party. Political analyst Éric Grenier pointed out at the Writ that “even administrations that were not liked didn’t poll this unfavorably.” He continued, suggesting that the Liberals’ issue has been ongoing; it’s not because of a single scandal or massive issue, but more due to the constant repercussions of nearly a decade in power. He concluded with, “People have made up their minds about Justin Trudeau, and their opinions of him are unlikely to alter.”