“Tory Tears: Predicting Two-Year Crash”

As the hands on the clock inched towards 10pm, anticipation filled the Westminster Arms, reminiscent of New Year’s Eve. The predominantly youthful Thursday night crowd, buzzing in anticipation of the weekend, hushed in expectation of the imminent exit poll results. The collective silence shattered as Channel 4 announced a “Labour sweep” triggering jubilant cheers that resonated beyond the pub and into the surrounding streets.

Just around the corner, tucked away on Matthew Parker Street, is the inconspicuous and security-gated building that houses the Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ). Although its facade lacks identification, it is the strategic hub of the party that governed the UK for the majority of the last two centuries.

This building, known for hosting traditional election night parties among Tory supporters and intellectuals during prosperous times, gained notoriety during the pandemic. It was the scene of a 2020 Christmas gathering referred to as “jingle and mingle,” resulting in fines for the staff involved. This was one of the numerous incidents which tainted the Tory party’s reputation, subsequently damaging the trust of the UK voters.

The aftermath of such events tends to create a strong bond in celebration, but an isolating void in setback. Emerging from the headquarters were mostly silent and downtrodden figures, amongst them was conservative MP, Ben Spencer. He’d popped into the HQ for an update and feedback, having an 18,270 majority to protect in his constituency of Runnymede and Weybridge, a seat previously held by former treasury head, Philip Hammond who stepped down amidst the Brexit upheavals preceding Boris Johnson’s 2019 Tory leadership victory.

“Of course, it’s a disheartening outcome,” he admitted. “But the night is not yet over. There was a palpable sense of disappointment in the political class in general from the community members I interacted with.”

Over a cigarette, one staff member voiced his dismay for both his party and his nation. His astonishment at the exit poll results, mirroring the opinion polls, seemed unfounded. When confronted with this, he responded, “Well, I was hopeful.” Another worker, despite the initial shock, thought “it could be worse,” considering some polls placed them trailing behind the Liberal Democrats – a potentially catastrophic ranking for the party.

The gentleman held the Reform Party accountable for the crushing failure, rather than attributing it to the triumph of Labour. “The only reason the Conservatives didn’t emerge victorious is because the extreme right defected to the Reform,” he emphasized. He seemed relatively unfazed about what decisions Labour might make with its strong majority slot, stating, “It’s ultimately not my concern.” He further predicted a looming setback about two years down the line when inexperience would lead to a disastrous crash.

He shared his perspective that a political party should function as a broad allegory of a church. He noted that Keir [Starmer] managed to bridge the gap between the extreme left and the centrists within the Labour Party to secure his victory. However, he adopted a dismissive demeanour towards Labour’s pronounced majority achieved with a mere 36 per cent of the expected votes, stating, “it isn’t quite the majority it might seem.”

Accordingly, in the spacious Olympia Exhibition centre, defeated Tory competitor Andrew Dinsmore, originally hailing from Belfast, manifested his anticipation for the Britons’ remorse over their election choice. He gauged the election’s outcome for the Tories on a one to 10 scale, 10 being the best case scenario and one being far off the mark. The outcome tallied an eight out of 10 in his judgment.

“Predictions of us ceasing to be the opposition have been proven wrong, as we now have a strong foundation to progress. The populace craved a different approach. However, I question whether they fully understood the nature of the change they vouched for. I surmise the strong majority that Keir Starmer has amassed may be prone to dissolve sooner than expected,” he concluded.

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