In the tumultuous world of British politics, the more considerable the applause from one’s own party members, the more likely it is that a prime minister could be in hot water. Based on this gauge, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may have reason for concern.
Sunak’s arrival at the House of Commons for a session of Prime Minister’s Questions on a recent Wednesday was met with a ground-shaking roar of approval from his Conservative peers. Later that day, a meeting of the formidable 1922 Committee saw continuing ovation for the Tory leader, lasting for nearly an entire minute; a reception that appeared almost ostentatiously excessive.
Despite this support, Sunak remains under pressure as whispers persist about the desire of his party’s more radical right wing for a change in leadership. Conservative Party backbenchers are on edge as the Labour Party continues to build a substantial lead in numerous polls, showing a margin exceeding 20 points in most surveys. This month’s fiscal budget, aimed at reducing taxes, was unable to disrupt Labour’s growing lead.
A recent poll by Redfield & Wilton, highlighting voting intentions in the northern England ‘red wall’ constituencies, has further panicked Tory backbenchers ahead of the 1922 meeting. The poll displayed a 24-point lead for Labour over the Conservatives. Most concerning for Sunak is the 16 per cent support indicated for the Nigel Farage-adjacent Reform UK party.
A surge in popularity for Reform could present a significant threat to the Conservatives by splitting the vote in marginal ‘red wall’ constituencies, potentially resulting in a Labour victory in the anticipated autumn general election.
In the lead-up to the local elections slated for May 2nd, Tory anxiety is expected to rise. An anticipated poor performance might intensify the strain on Sunak. Yet, the under-pressure Prime Minister has a couple of strategies up his sleeve as he fights to stay in control. First on the agenda is the initiation of deportation flights to Rwanda by early summer, a move designed to demonstrate assertiveness in addressing the increasing immigration and asylum claims, especially those from individuals arriving in the UK via small boats.
In order to implement his Rwanda plan, he needs to pass a bill. Despite getting through the House of Commons, it’s currently lodged in the House of Lords. While those on Sunak’s benches had a theatrical celebration as he entered the 1922 committee soirée, the Lords were deciding on a host of modifications to the bill. The government suffered a setback in the first of the seven scheduled Wednesday votes.
This implies the game of parliamentary ‘ping-pong’, where a bill is volleyed back and forth between the Lords and Commons until a middle ground is reached, is sure to continue into the next week at the earliest. This could possibly extend beyond the 20-day Easter break. As a result, Sunak might find it challenging to have a flight to Rwanda ready before June when the quantity of people attempting to traverse the Channel in small boats is predicted to rise.
Sunak’s other strategic move is portraying himself as a capable caretaker of the nation’s wealth. Receiving a surge on Wednesday as new figures revealed a more sharp and rapid reduction in inflation to 3.4 per cent than anticipated comes as a boon. This is likely to stimulate economic growth as the year progresses.
On Wednesday, Sunak predicted a ‘bounce back’ for the economy in 2024. However, he finds himself ensnared in a progressively frantic political battle to retain his position and see this prediction come to fruition.