It’s expected that between 1500 to 2000 members of Fine Gael will assemble at the ardfheis in Galway, where Simon Harris will make his inaugural speech as the new party leader. There are seven significant topics that are predicted to dominate the delegate discussions.
Simon Harris, the Wicklow TD acknowledged for his impressive social media standing with 1.8 million likes and close to 96,000 followers on TikTok only, is being seen as the ‘TikTok taoiseach’. Fellow party members eagerly anticipate that his robust communication skills will convert into votes for Fine Gael, not merely for the nearing local and European elections in June, but more importantly, for the crucial general election, which has to be conducted within the forthcoming year. Harris is expected to share his vision for the nation and his party in his keynote speech on Saturday evening.
Simon Harris has indicated a resurgence in focus towards traditional Fine Gael subjects such as law enforcement, support for small businesses and farmers, which will be referred to as ‘Back to Basics’. Expectations are high that there will not only be discussions surrounding stricter sentences and Gardaí body cameras in the domain of criminal justice but also on fiscal reductions and alleviation of childcare expenses. Slight at Sinn Féin are sure to surface, being perennial favourites amongst Fine Gael members.
With regard to government reshuffling, Harris has the challenge of filling in up to five vacancies currently present, two within the Cabinet and as maximum, three in the ranks of lesser ministers. As Harris is projected to secure the taoiseach post in Tuesday’s Dáil vote, his Department of Higher Education will undoubtedly require a new minister. Simon Coveney’s decision to step away from Cabinet contention has provided Harris with an added opportunity to rejuvenate the Fine Gael team. It is widely believed that Junior Ministers Peter Burke, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, Neale Richmond, Hildegarde Naughton and Patrick O’Donovan are vying for the spots.
Finally, it remains to be seen whether Simon Harris can initiate any significant policy changes before the conclusion of this administration.
The newly appointed deputy leader of Fine Gael, Heather Humphreys, who also serves as the Minister for Social Protection, and Paschal Donohoe, Minister for Public Expenditure, are believed to be secure in their current roles. The status of Helen McEntee, Minister for Justice, is potentially more precarious due to difficulties within her jurisdiction, such as the stagnation of hate speech legislation. Despite these issues, it remains highly unlikley that she will be excluded entirely from the Cabinet. Potential promotions to junior minister roles are being discussed for backbenchers including Alan Dillon from Mayo, Emer Higgins from Dublin Mid-West, and Cork North-Central’s Colm Burke. Decisions by Harris will need to account for factors such as experience, skill and possibly geographic location. His choices will inevitably result in some disgruntled TDs and much joy for others.
The impending local and European elections in June are already on the agenda, with the party having chosen over 300 candidates in an effort to capitalise on the 255 council seats secured in 2019. Fine Gael is trailing Fianna Fáil as the second-largest party in local government, so one of Harris’ major tasks will be increasing voter turnout. Another challenge is maintaining their five-seat presence in the European Parliament. The party has declared TV personality and Former jockey Nina Carberry as a notable candidate for Midlands North-West. She will be joining the incumbent MEP Maria Walsh. Both are expected to have a significant presence at the primary urban area in the constituency. Training sessions have also been planned for candidates in areas such as print and design, as well as “election compliance” with regards to expenditure and fundraising regulations.
The future political intents of Leo Varadkar, the outgoing Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach, and Coveney remain uncertain. Neither has made any confirmation about their plans for the upcoming general election. This has fuelled speculation about their possible retirement from frontline politics, considering the sizable number of Fine Gael TDs elected in 2020 (12) who won’t be standing in the next election. Lastly, there will be a series of debates and motions further down the line.
Approximately 200 pieces of legislation are scheduled for discussion over the course of more than 20 sessions with topics such as “Returning Money into Your Wallet” and “Securing Safer Streets in Ireland”. Expected subjects up for debate include tax reduction, increased police presence, immigration and housing. Other topics cover a wide span including a proposition to allot each newborn citizen a €100 allowance, a pitch to ban disposable e-cigarettes, and a demand for “Fine Gael in Government to give lethal military support to Ukraine”. However, it is unlikely that some of the more outlandish motions will be accepted.
The Weather
Instead of the clear, sunny weather that Harris might hope for during his inaugural ardfheis as leader, Storm Kathleen is predicted to hit Galway for the majority of the day on Saturday. The severe orange weather alert might discourage some members from making the journey. Still, for those brave enough to face the weather, non-political subjects are bound to dominate their discussions during the gathering.