France witnessed massive protests over the weekend as demonstrators marched against Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally party that is expected to prevail in the upcoming snap legislative elections declared by President Emmanuel Macron in a fortnight. The issues that the protesters aim to highlight include human rights, environmental protection, equality, and economic policies.
President Macron’s decision to dissolve the legislature last Sunday, following his party’s defeat against the National Rally in the European Parliament polls, was highly risky. This bold move was intended to boost his domestic support. However, it simultaneously risked potentially handing over the reins of the French government to Le Pen.
Further exacerbating Macron’s problems, four leftist parties have decided to unite for the elections. Polls suggest that this alliance could emerge as the second largest faction, surpassing Macron’s party, Renaissance. With France’s dual-round voting system requiring a threshold to progress to the final round, many Renaissance contenders might not even reach the final polling day.
Marylise Leon, the General Secretary of protest organizing union CFDT, told France Inter radio on Saturday: “We are at a critical juncture, in uncertain times, it’s like our democracy taking a leap into the unknown. When it comes to the far right, we mobilize.”
According to French police, around 350,000 participants are expected to join the nationwide marches.
On the financial side, the political unpredictability and the growing chances of the next administration implementing expensive public finance measures have alarmed investors. The resulting sell-off wiped approximately $210 billion off the French stock market value. Among the largest losers were major government debt holders including Société Générale SA, BNP Paribas SA and Crédit Agricole SA, with losses exceeding 10% each.
Meanwhile, rifts emerged within the left-leaning coalition, famously known as the New Popular Front, as members sparred among themselves. Key figures from France Unbowed – a far-left party that recently united with the Greens, Socialists and Communists – openly criticised their leader Jean-Luc Melenchon over the selection of their candidates.
Alexis Corbiere, a legislator from France Unbowed, lamented on Franceinfo radio network over the weekend that he had become the target of Jean-Luc Melenchon’s grudge, a move he labelled as trifling. Corbiere, who was eliminated from the candidate list, pointed to the larger issue at hand: stopping the far-right from attaining power.
There are significant ideological differences amongst the four left-wing parties, especially concerning pivotal issues such as the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine. Consequently, their ability to maintain unity through two electoral rounds remains uncertain.
“We shouldn’t waste time tearing each other down,” Francois Ruffin, a prospective alliance candidate, told journalists at the commencement of a march in central Paris. He contended that the nation needed assurance which would not be attained by hurling insults at one another. Ruffin praised Melenchon’s recent decision to retreat from the spotlight as “good news.” He stressed the need for that to continue to ensure the smoothest and most peaceful campaign possible.
The likelihood of former president François Hollande contesting the election from his traditional constituency in Correze has been indicated by an anonymous insider. This turmoil within the left-wing parties reflects the disorder currently consuming the conservative Republicans party. The latter is embroiled in a legal dispute concerning the legitimacy of their leader’s expulsion following his attempted alliance with Le Pen’s faction.
Paris-based judges issued a temporary halt on Eric Ciotti’s expulsion on Friday evening, providing him with ample time to lodge a lawsuit to discuss the merits of his case. Despite his removal, Ciotti asserts that he’s still the president of the Republicans, while his attorney has argued that regulations were breached during his ejection process.
Meanwhile, President Macron has made attempts to depict his political rivals from both the far-left and far-right as unfit for governance, characterising both factions as “incoherent.” Speaking at the G7 summit in southern Italy, Macron criticised these extreme political groups for irresponsible promises of unfunded giveaways, stating, “They are not prepared to govern.”
Earlier this week, Bruno Le Maire, holding the position of finance minister, voiced his concerns regarding the potential win of the left-wing coalition. He highlighted the threat they posed to the economic health of the country and its EU status. He based his campaigning strategy on these economic fears. Le Maire labelled their agenda as ‘utter lunacy’ on Franceinfo radio, asserting it would lead to a decrease in the standard of living, rampant joblessness, and the country’s departure from the EU.
The newly formed left-wing bloc brushed off Le Maire’s apprehensions about their economic blueprint. They argued that the tax reductions implemented by Macron for high-income individuals and on capital have led to a significant deficit in public funds.
Moreover, there’s ambiguity over the effectiveness of these intimidations by the government. They bear a resemblance to the 2016 warnings against Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump to US Presidency.
According to an extrapolation by the survey agency Elabe, the National Rally party, in contrast to Macron and his associates, who are likely to secure between 90 to 130 seats, is predicted to capture around 270 seats out of the 577 in the National Assembly. – Bloomberg.