Despite the attempts by US media outlets to inject some intrigue, the outcome of this week’s Super Tuesday primaries was largely foreseen, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump scoring comprehensive victories in their respective parties. This result signifies they will be the Democratic and Republican nominees for the impending November presidential election. Trump’s only remaining competitor, Nikki Haley, has put her campaign on hold, further solidifying the expected outcome. Unless there is an unforeseen turn of events, such as a health concern, we’re on track for a 2020 election rerun. In essence, the general election campaign is already underway.
The primary system and both parties are under scrutiny for offering American voters candidates that they don’t overwhelmingly support, according to the polls. Consequently, Biden and Trump are historically the two most unpopular major party candidates, yet neither the Democrats nor the Republicans were able to present a more desirable candidate to voters.
Currently, it appears that Trump has the upper hand, despite his popularity not improving since his defeat four years ago. The situation is aggravated by the stark decline in Biden’s favourability ratings since 2020, especially within key demographics for the Democratic base, such as black, Hispanic and younger voters.
Trump’s position is further bolstered by two supreme court decisions. The first is the expected one, denying Colorado’s legislature’s attempt to take him off the state’s ballot due to his involvement in the Capitol riot of January 6th, 2021. The second decision, to evaluate Trump’s assertion of executive privilege as a defence in his federal trial relating to the same events, makes it doubtful that the trial will occur before the election.
Once again, the line between American politics and the law appears to be blurred.
In the pursuit of optimism, one might propose that in the coming months, economic perspectives could shift, thus painting a potentially brighter picture of Biden through voters’ eyes. It is also conceivable that the possibility of Trump’s re-emergence in the presidency might turn some voters back towards the Democrats’ domain. However, these are unstable foundations to build a re-election bid upon, completely overlooking the prevalent doubts many Americans have regarding Biden’s suitability to serve another four-year term. Concurrently, nothing uttered or enacted by Trump or the Republicans recently will alleviate the apprehension that a potential re-election may cause significant harm to both, the democratic fabric of America and the global order. A highly strung, tension-filled eight months lay ahead as we wait for intensely contested results from the pivotal half dozen swing states upon which election results teeter.