The 2024 presidential election in the United States appears primed for another face-off between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, with the result likely to hinge on a mere six swing states. In the American electoral system, the electoral college, not the popular vote, determines the winner. Every state assigns electoral college votes depending on their population size, which are decided by their citizens’ vote.
For instance, Alaska, with its sparse population, assigns only three electoral college votes, while California has 54 up for contention. The total tally of electoral votes stands at 538, where a majority of 270 is required to clinch the presidency.
In the vast majority of states, voting outcomes are predictable, which leads to the focus of the campaigns on a select few, poised to be bombarded with campaign ads, presidential meets, and Trump gatherings.
Arizona
Key debate: Immigration
Electoral college votes: 11
Poll outcomes: Trump at 47.5 per cent; Biden at 42 per cent
In Arizona, debate over the topic of immigration has already sparked off between Biden and Trump. Sharing a 600km border with Mexico, immigration is of utmost importance for the Arizona electorate. Although overall US entry has started to decline, there’s an acknowledgement from the Biden administration that border crossings in Arizona, specifically Tucson, are on the rise. Trump, on his part, argues that “illegal immigrants are pushing their way into Arizona”. The discourse in the state will also be influenced by the issue of abortion and unfounded assertions from Trump’s camp that Trump was the actual victor in Arizona in 2020.
Georgia
Major concern: Election interference
Electoral college votes: 16
Poll standings: Trump at 48.5 per cent; Biden at 42 per cent
In Georgia, one of four criminal cases against former President Trump is unfolding, with District Attorney of Fulton County indicting him on counts of meddling in the 2020 elections. The charges include allegations of engaging in multiple conspiracies and breaching Georgia’s racketeering laws. Mr. Trump rejects these charges, blaming them on political bias. Though recent debate surrounding the district attorney has somewhat obscured the case, if it continues before November, it may dominate the election conversation. The economy is another key topic for Georgia’s voters. The White House attributes the state’s flourishing economy and the influx of investment into sectors like battery production to the Biden administration. However, Republicans argue that Biden is causing economic harm.
Over in Michigan, where there are 15 votes up for grabs in the Electoral College, the population’s stance on Israel’s actions in Gaza and green energy plays a significant role. The president’s backing of Israel could pose a problem, given the strong protest vote against him, particularly from the Arab-American demographic as well as university communities such as Ann Arbor. Bearing in mind Trump’s 11,000 vote victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, the size of this protest vote carries weight. But when it comes to November’s election, the attitude of industrial workers, particularly those in the auto manufacturing sector, will be critical. Biden intends to appeal to them with his approach to re-industrialisation, whereas Trump aims to criticise green energy initiatives and the emphasis on electric vehicles. “Victory in Michigan equals election victory,” Trump asserts.
Lastly, in Nevada, with six Electoral College votes, the key issues are unemployment and the economy. With Trump leading Biden 48.7% to 41% according to polls, the economic situation is of great significance.
Amidst the slow recovery from the devastation of the Covid-19 pandemic on Nevada’s casino-dependent economy, economic messaging becomes crucial in the state. The state holds the unfortunate title of having the highest unemployment rate in the US, with workers grappling to find job security as casinos adopt automated processes. Nevada was in hands of Democrats for the last four elections, though 2022 saw the election of a Republican governor, indicating potential shifts. Trump seems to be gaining ground over Biden, making Nevada a key area to watch in the swing states.
Pennsylvania, meanwhile, will be a battleground for the working-class vote due to its significant rust-belt population. The state is known for its substantial shale gas fracking industry, as well as its urban and progressive populations in cities like Philadelphia. Balancing both the aspirations of environmentally conscious voters and the industrial core, including unions, will be pivotal. Biden’s decision this year to halt new liquefied natural gas exports sparked criticism, even from within his own party. Meanwhile, Trump’s endorsement of the American oil and gas sectors may appeal to certain demographics. Ultimately, Pennsylvania’s choice could come down to its rural versus urban constituents.
Wisconsin, with its 10 electoral college votes, also hangs in the balance, with abortion being the key issue. The current polls place Trump just ahead of Biden, making this state another one to closely monitor.
In the 2020 election, Wisconsin was a crucial swing state, pushing Biden past the 270 electoral votes threshold by a slender margin of less than 20,000 votes. Democrats are gearing up for the 2024 election, with abortion rights taking centre stage in their campaign, a strategy that has a proven record in state elections and contributed to the election of a supporter to Wisconsin’s supreme court last year. The Republican legislators, on the other hand, are attempting to impose stricter abortion access rules.
While Wisconsin has a robust agricultural market, Democrats believe that urban women and college students will be the key to securing their votes. A poll from Marquette University Law School in Milwaukee suggests potential areas of attack for the Republicans, highlighting Biden’s age and performance in office as areas of concern.
The determination of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes may ultimately hinge on which party successfully motivates their supporters to cast their votes. Enthusiasm for voting in Wisconsin has dipped significantly according to Marquette University’s poll, with voter enthusiasm dropping to 49% from 70% four years prior.
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