Long standing Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, associated with the term ‘shehzada’ or ‘pappu’ – a princeling and innocent as per Hindi translation, by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, has surprisingly earned the most significant victory in his political tenure. Gandhi, the 53-year-old representative of the Indian National Congress party managed to stun the public by a unforeseen outcome in the general election of India, boosting their seat count twofold and ending the majority rule of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party.
Despite assumptions of weakness stemming from a decade long reign of Modi, and a high likelihood of failure predicted by polling experts, Gandhi displayed impressive electioneering tactics. This places him and the opposition coalition known as INDIA in a potential position to disturb the BJP’s political dominance in the country with a population of 1.4 billion.
Gurdeep Singh Sappal, an executive of the Congress party quoted, “It was a David-versus-Goliath scenario”, adding that from this point, their focus would be on fortifying their organisation and addressing prevailing concerns. They intend to formulate an alternative national vision, regardless of their position in governance or opposition.
In the lower house of parliament of India, the BJP succeeded in securing 240 out of 543 seats, with INDIA not far behind at 234. The deficiency of a majority for the BJP implies a dependency on alliances with regional parties to guarantee Modi’s unprecedented third term in office.
Few members of INDIA even contemplated the opportunity of conjuring their ruling coalition, with parliamentary member Sanjay Raut suggesting that Modi should accept his defeat and Gandhi be appointed in his place. Raut praised Gandhi, stating, “He has asserted himself as a national leader”.
Regardless, this speculation appears far fetched as Modi obtained unanimous support from BJP’s National Democratic Alliance parties, collectively winning 293 seats in parliament. Yet, Modi’s dependence on coalition aid and the possibility of a newly united and powerful opposition, both inside and outside of parliament, might result in reduced autocratic power, forcing him into unexpected negotiations and settlements in his future term.
Manuraj S, a representative for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party that is part of INDIA, expressed how the public’s trust in the BJP as the sole majority party had significantly dwindled. This shift is visible in Tamil Nadu, where all 39 lower-house seats were bagged by the alliance. This loss implies that the victors have been entrusted with the significant task of forming a solid opposition, and it becomes imperative for the ruling government to acknowledge and consider they opinions.
During the election campaign, Modi had predicted that the BJP would clinch a massive two-thirds majority, amounting to over 370 seats. He pledged to leverage this immense parliamentary superiority to boost India’s economy through radical economic amendments.
Modi was also relentless in his criticisms of the INDIA alliance during his campaign, painting it as a gathering of self-interested political figures. Arrests of two prominent opposition figures on suspicion of corruption, along with the suspension of Congress party’s bank accounts, were seen by INDIA as an exercise motivated by political vendetta.
While results were still being tallied on Tuesday, Modi promised to perpetuate his drive against corruption, blaming his opponents for ‘pushing the boundaries of shamelessness’. He emphasised that his third term would be dedicated to exterminating every form of corruption.
However, critics suggest that some of this rhetoric may have boomeranged. The INDIA alliance shaped their campaign to counter the BJP’s over ambitions and handle unresolved economic matters like unemployment and inflation, which continued to plague the country under Modi’s regime, despite the growth in economy.
Modi’s aspiration for a two-thirds majority, many leaders including Gandhi alleged, was a ruse to alter India’s constitution and retract benefits such as government employment reservations for lower-caste Indians – a claim the Prime Minister refuted.
Political analyst, Neerja Chowdhury, mentioned that this tactic turned out to be a ‘sentimental message’ that resonated significantly with lower-caste voters. She noted that people have a preference for a reigning power with restrictions and a formidable opposition to keep them in check.
The INDIA alliance also managed to broker several seat-sharing agreements among its partners in battlegrounds like Uttar Pradesh, which is India’s largest state population-wise, and this strategic move led to them wresting numerous seats from the BJP.
Gandhi, the progeny of the assassinated ex-Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and Italian-born leader of the Congress, Sonia Gandhi, long ago discerned that the Indian populace would resist BJP’s power misuse. He articulated to journalists during Tuesday’s vote count that the Congress Party would persist in defending the constitution and ensuring the proper functioning of the parliament.
His son’s surprising breakthrough against Modi, marked a significant reversal in his political fortune. Despite two historic defeats to Modi in 2014 and 2019, Gandhi has been often criticised for his inability to counteract the powerful Hindu nationalist narrative of the prime minister, a narrative that often presented Gandhi as a privileged dynast far removed from regular people.
However, commentators point out a shift in dynamics when Gandhi embarked on two-month nation-wide expeditions on foot and by jeep. He travelled several thousands of kilometres to engage with voters and highlight economic difficulties.
Regardless of his unforeseen accomplishment this week, it does not alter the fact that for the third time, Gandhi failed to best Modi in elections. Yamini Aiyar, a scholar of public policy, illuminated that Gandhi has explicitively transformed into a political leader who distinguishes himself from Modi. She adds caution stating, this opportunity must be capitalised on; it could be his final opportunity to firm up his leadership and energise the party. – © The Financial Times Limited 2024