Eleazar Flores, an elderly butcher from Contla, Tlaxcala in Mexico, continues to work well into his 70s. Despite his age, one recent development has alleviated some of his financial strain – a government pension. This source of financial relief, he believes, is due to the actions of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who he credits for assisting the less fortunate.
Flores is one among approximately 25 million individuals in Mexico who are beneficiaries of a social scheme, as per governmental data. These cash transfers have been a focal point of López Obrador’s politics.
Having been a protest leader in Tabasco, López Obrador’s political journey started way before his tenure as Mexico City’s mayor in 2000. Subsequently, he devoted ten years touring the nation, rallying support among the working class, and, although he lost in two presidential elections, he was able to amass strong support. This worked to his advantage when he swept to victory in 2018, achieving broad support across all demographic groups.
Despite significant economic challenges, a poor trajectory during the Covid-19 pandemic, and a spike in homicides, López Obrador’s popularity ratings remain high, nestling in the mid-60s. The president, often referred to as “Amlo”, has maintained a strong following among Mexico’s less affluent residents. To these supporters, he represents a break from a presumably aloof and corrupt political class.
Known for his simple lifestyle, López Obrador eschewed the luxurious trappings of presidential life, such as the jet and mansion. He rarely travels abroad, drives a white Volkswagen Jetta and prefers dining in humble eateries. As per the constitution, he is restricted to just one term of six years.
Tlaxcala, Mexico’s smallest state, decorated with farming lands, factories, tribal communities, and reeling under abject poverty, has stood by him through all three elections, providing him with his second-highest voter count, surpassed only by his home state, in the 2018 presidential race. As such, López Obrador has rejoiced in his significant electoral success here.
Bonifacio Herrera, a waiter aged 59, appreciates the simplicity and congeniality of a regular patron who favours traditional dishes like huazontles, a native plant colloquially termed “Aztec broccoli”. He even showed a picture captured during a recent visit by this customer, a prominent figure who relishes mingling with the general public.
The popularity of López Obrador, this figure in question, could largely be credited to his government’s social programmes. These initiatives – focused on the elderly, a certain number of farmers and the youth – have seen a 30% increase in real terms since he assumed power. The already high cash transfers have tripled, as noted by public policy research organization, IMCO.
Under López Obrador’s tenure, these benefits have reached a larger segment of the population. However, the least privileged groups gain proportionally fewer advantages than before. Notably, he orchestrated a more than two-fold increment of the meagre daily minimum wage in Mexico to 250 pesos (€13.80), without consequential economic backlash. This has alleviated moderate poverty to a substantial degree; from an initial 42%, it has reduced to 36% in 2022. Nevertheless, extreme poverty has seen a marginal increase.
Critics of López Obrador, however, view him as a divisive character who threatens democracy by trying to reestablish a dominant party. Major cities like Mexico City are split, with some considering his tenure as mayor to have been tolerably good, but are wary of his reportedly increasing radicalism and intolerance.
Upper and middle-class citizens grew increasingly worried about López Obrador potentially jeopardising democracy, demonstrated by their significant turnout in support of institutions like the supreme court and the electoral authority. López Obrador’s supporters though, have a contrasting perspective. Flores, a supporter, believes democracy has been enhanced under López Obrador due to increased public participation. A key tool in López Obrador’s political arsenal is the “mañanera”, a long, morning news conference held each weekday that occupies a significant portion of the nation’s media, a considerable amount of which relies on government advertisements. Supporters, frequently journalists, often use this forum to ask sycophantic queries.
The understanding of the current situation and political climate in Mexico, as well as the popularity and voter preferences surrounding López Obrador, are closely tied to his daily rhetoric, often referred to as the “mañanera”, according to Roy Campos, Mitofsky polling group’s president. López Obrador is viewed by his supporters as a leader who stands up to the strong and advocates for the poor, a narrative he prompts every day.
Much like other populist leaders with a knack for communication, López Obrador has generated phrases that have infiltrated local discourse. He is notorious for criticising the “bourgeois, conservative media” and counters negative statistics with his own “divergent data”. Critics describe him as a “Teflon president”, blaming his challenges on “elites” who put hurdles in his path.
Security is a primary concern for voters, as indicated by surveys, with the number of homicides and disappearances during López Obrador’s tenure exceeding that of any past Mexican president. While agreeing that he has yet to solve the issue, his supporters believe he has the willingness but faces immense challenges. They often attribute the increased violence to local officials and the judiciary, including supreme court president Norma Piña, whom López Obrador sharply criticises after justices rejected laws by his party.
Claudia Sheinbaum, López Obrador’s protégé and leading contender for the next presidency, has pledged to maintain his policies consistently. Predictions indicate that she may secure a similar voting percentage. Beneficiaries of his social programs are likely to back Sheinbaum by two-thirds, whilst Gálvez, the opposition candidate, is expected to receive support from nearly half of those not benefiting from these programs, as per an April survey by El Financiero newspaper.
The opposition, particularly the PRI, is viewed negatively by many voters. This party is synonymous with prolonged ruling monopolies and corruption, a notion that López Obrador promotes in his speeches. The PRI is part of the coalition spearheaded by Gálvez.
The blanket maker from Tlaxcala, Doroteo Xelhuantzi, voiced his outrage saying “The PRI has given our country away,” and claimed that the infrastructure was passed onto Canadians while Americans received our oil. The upcoming election on June 2nd, which includes selections for congress as well as and numerous local positions, has morphed into a litmus test on the political direction outlined by López Obrador, despite Obrador not being up for election himself for the first time in over twenty years.
Sheinbaum, though committed to continuing Obrador’s vision, is faced with the problem of a serious budget deficit. Adding to her woes, as an ex-academic, her communication style doesn’t have the natural ease of her guide. While the President plans to withdraw to his ranch, there remains a sentiment among his followers that they would have preferred him to stay on and run for office once more.
With regard to Sheinbaum and other frontline leaders of Amlo’s Morena party, Flores, a butcher, was not so sure about the future. “For the time being, they’ll carry on the movement started by Lopez Obrador, but going forward, only time will tell,” he said. – Courtesy The Financial Times Limited 2024