The government has been increasingly concerned about the referendums’ outcomes on family and care, due to low voter turnout following a lackluster campaign. The rates of casting votes were disappointingly slow throughout Friday, leading to doubts in governmental circles whether the voter turnout would even hit 40 per cent.
Positive results were deemed less likely, with inside sources suggesting a potential failure of one or both referendums due to a notably poor turnout. As of Friday evening, a mere 25 per cent of voters in Dublin city had cast their votes. The situation was similar in rural areas of Cork, where the figure reached 22.3 per cent in the afternoon and in Galway, a turnout of only one in five voters was reported.
Two referendums were held on Friday. The first referendum, if agreed upon, would broaden the constitution’s definition of family to include “long-term relationships”, such as unmarried couples residing together and their offspring. The second vote concerned changing the constitution’s wording around the roles of women in domestic life to acknowledge care within family units.
Vote counting is to commence at 9am on Saturday, with the results from both referendums to be announced separately later in the day. Government insiders quoted evident confusion over the questions posed to the public and the ineffective campaign as possible reasons for a ‘No’ outcome in either or both referendums. One anonymous source expressed concerns about the outlook, without officially admitting defeat, while another stated the possibility of failure was very real.
Green Senator Pauline O’Reilly, responsible for her party’s campaign, expressed further concern about the turnout on Friday evening. All major political parties and “a significant portion of civil society” had supported ‘Yes’ votes in both referendums. With such backing, Senator O’Reilly highlighted that turnout and voter engagement would play crucial roles in deciding the final results.
Ivana Bacik, the chief of Labour Party, expressed her optimism on seeing more people turning up to vote after their working hours on Friday. She revealed that she has heard plenty of individuals altering their inclination towards voting Yes twice in the previous day.
However, Bacik admitted that the decision will be a closely contested one.
Those campaigning for a No vote in the family referendum underscore the ambiguity associated with the phrase “durable relationships”. They argue that if such wording finds its way into the Constitution, it could affect various areas such as succession, immigration, and tax laws.
In the care referendum, critique has emerged from the No campaigners regarding the proposed amendment’s lack of recognition for care provided outside formal settings. They argue that the government’s text does not impose enough responsibility on the state to support care.
The head of Aontú, Peadar Tóibín, who was in favour of a No vote, voiced his anticipation that the turnout will not hit the lowest anticipated limits. Despite being careful, he senses a strengthening momentum for the No side. Tóibín predicts that the care amendment is most likely to be unsuccessful, whereas the decision on the other one will be highly competitive.
Turnout during a past referendum, which witnessed only 33.5% of the voters attending the polling booths, and which was about children’s rights, passed by merely 57.4%, which was less than what was predicted.
The number of people casting their votes on Friday is not expected to come anywhere close to the 60.5% of the electorate that had voted in the same-sex marriage referendum, or the 64.1% who had turned up for the referendum on repealing the Eighth Amendment on abortion.
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