The recent defeated referendums on care and family issues have prompted increasing concern within the government due to a perceived heightened fluctuation in voting tendencies, particularly with numerous forthcoming elections. The Coalition was left staggered after the significant loss, deeply unsettling ministers not just because of the defeat itself, but the magnitude of the decline for the proposals which were supported by the majority of political factions.
With local and European elections set for June and a potential general election to occur later this year, one government insider dubbed the results as “highly significant”. The care referendum, suggesting removing the traditional expectation of a woman’s and mother’s role in the household and replacing it with the acknowledgement of familial care, was defeated with an unprecedented 73.9 per cent No vote. A related proposal to broaden the scope of the family definition to include enduring relationships in addition to established marriages received a 67.69 per cent No vote.
The direct fallout prompted blame shifting within the Coalition, with Minister of State Mary Butler, a member of the Fianna Fáil party, expressing on an RTÉ radio interview on Sunday that there wasn’t unanimous support for these proposals within the Government. Butler pointed to fellow members across all three parties, indicating that voters delivered a sharp rebuff, and added that the Government’s reasons provided for the envisioned constitutional modifications “failed to assure many individuals, and that the Government needs to accept responsibility”.
Catherine Cox, the senior policymaker at the association, Family Carers Ireland, campaigned in favour of both proposals. She suggested that different phrasing for the care referendum may have led to a distinct result.
It’s expected by ministers that the initial impact will be limited but worry the four defeats has impacted the Coalition’s assurance due to their considerable voter misreadings, increasing the possibility for future unpredictable results and potential voter retaliation throughout the ongoing year.
A Cabinet insider stated, “The scope for irregularity and instability within Ireland is even more than it was in 2020. There’s a growing frustration and impatience amongst voters and this unpredictability could manifest itself in various ways.”
On a query last Saturday concerning the implications of the No votes, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar commented that a government doesn’t gain any specific advantage from either winning or losing a referendum. However, he recognised that the Coalition had suffered two major blows from the voters. Simon Coveney, Minister for Enterprise, suggested that the result wouldn’t necessarily impact local, European, or general elections.
A source within the Government voiced that the forthcoming general election’s result had become even harder to predict due to recent events, adding that the outcome could end up unfeasible based on current surveys and political unrest. Several individuals within the Coalition criticised privately the decision to carry out the referendum in the first place, as well as the campaign approach. Early discussions about the result have been requested by ex-minister Charlie Flanagan at the Fine Gael parliamentary.
Flanagan has aired several issues amongst the party that the Government may need to address before the upcoming general election, such as assisted dying, implementing Ireland’s abortion laws review recommendations, and extending pub operating hours. All these issues could potentially trigger a negative response from voters.
Coalition insiders noted that in the near future, progressive issues may be put to the sidelines in favour of issues popular with their base. One source from Fine Gael stated, “The political priorities now are tax, job creation, and policing.”
At a Fine Gael convention in Tipperary, Varadkar admitted that the Government had difficulties communicating the potential benefits of a Yes vote. Therefore, he pointed out that future referendums must be focused on enabling individuals to do things currently beyond their range, and issues untacklable by legislation or regulation.
A Minister from Fianna Fáil criticised the government, stating they had been too concentrated on “niche issues” and should instead turn their attention towards more pressing matters. Several informants suggested that an earlier general election is now less likely due to the referendum’s results.