This week sees a rearrangement of ranks within Fine Gael under new leadership, with the Fianna Fáil ardfheis kicking off on Friday evening. Although traditional politics still manage to float, the boat lacks navigational capabilities.
Legacy politics are often under the spotlight due to their governing priority. Its old support base is now assorted with Independent TDs and minor political factions. There will be more Independent TDs up for election next time than the numbers Fine Gael can conjure. This depicts a receding tide.
The political landscape in Ireland is on the brink of amplifying complexity. Independent entities and tiny parties, unless a significant surge is noted within the three primary parties, will hold sway in choosing the ruling party in the forthcoming Dáil. Should Sinn Féin’s popularity wave crash and lack numerical strength or partnerships to establish a government, Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael might be in a stronger position to do so – although they will be significantly short of the needed seats.
If the flattening growth trajectory of Sinn Féin is confirmed come election day, it signifies a gamechanger, promoting Independent TDs and smaller parties to the epicentre in the ensuing convoluted Dáil scenario having 174 seats, which is 14 seats more than the current number.
Sinn Féin’s future supremacy hinges on a key point. Falling short of this point implies an unlikely prospect of forming a government. It needs to claim enough seats on its own to be the centrepiece of a future coalition that Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael cannot parallel to, calling for a slew of second seats in constituencies nationwide.
Based on the current opinion poll figures, Sinn Féin is not headed towards the formation of a government. The remaining two of the “big three” have the edge in grim times, with inner-party transfers ensuring they stay viable. Their lack of momentum or societal grasp is of minor concern. They merely need ample driftwood to keep afloat for one last lifesaving use.
The shifting sentiment is evident following Sinn Féin’s inconsistent policy changes on hate speech, the Nature Restoration Law, and recent referendums, leading to an atmosphere of skepticism and instability. If they find difficulty articulating their stance, how can they represent us? People are in search of a genuine representation and are open to expanding their horizons to find it.
Public sentiment is gloomy, predominantly in the countryside. This doesn’t align with empirical evidence given the prosperous economy. Nevertheless, there’s a prevailing discomfort and a feeling of being neglected that is unequivocally prevalent, although tricky to quantify tangibly. An overall instability and insecurity is felt. The shifting policies are causing challenges for farmers, creating uncertainty about their roles. Members of the Green Party, led by the quiet Eamon Ryan, are cast as villains and are often blamed, especially by their local government partners in rural constituencies.
On environmental changes, the three primary parties are caught in an unfavorable situation. They acknowledge urgent actions must be taken but are hesitant to accept the resultant transformation, fuelling an impression that climate change is being leveraged to subjugate rural communities.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, who only committed to addressing the climate concern and understood its effects in order to form a government in the wake of their 2020 electoral catastrophe, have fallen prey to their own ambiguity. It has been seen in referendums that citizens will not endorse reforms that politicians evidently don’t trust themselves.
At the edges of this rural dissatisfaction lies climate scepticism and an anti-foreigner mindset, which can extend into explicit racism. This is where the urban elitism becomes apparent. It is evocative of Hilary Clinton’s infamous 2016 comment in a New York City fund-raiser, where she stated that half of Donald Trump’s followers are part of a ‘basket of deplorables’ with ‘racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic’ viewpoints. She subsequently lost every rural county in the United States. Condescension and lecturing people who feel overlooked is ineffective politics and won’t yield results.
The political landscape in Ireland may be on the verge of a shakeup. Michael Fitzmaurice, Michael Collins, and Richard O’Donoghue, all TDs, have established Independent Ireland, a new political party. Verona Murphy, hailing from Wexford, is also making movements in the local elections by putting forth a roster of candidates. These changes are reminiscent of the achievements of the Independent Alliance in 2016, a group lead by Shane Ross that managed to secure a Cabinet position and turned two members into state ministers.
The central question lies in whether Sinn Féin will manage to snag additional seats in constituencies across the nation. If they fail to do so, this could provide breathing space for smaller parties and left-leaning Independents. While they may not bolster any moves towards forming a government, their presence certainly complicates the process, potentially creating opportunities for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to make a comeback.
With entities like the Social Democrats and Aontú, and shrewd operators such as Fitzmaurice and Murphy, the gap left by the underperformance of larger parties may be filled in an expanded Dáil. Although the campaigning rules might hinder their visibility on mainstream television platforms, the crucial position of influence is currently theirs to lose or maintain.