A political dispute was ignited recently between two of the European Union’s prominent right-wing parties, Alternative for Germany (AfD) and National Rally (RN) of France, triggered by a comment from AfD about the remote tropical island, Mayotte. AfD suggested that the impoverished French territory should become part of the neighbouring Union of Comoros, a statement aimed at illustrating the EU’s inconsistent recognition of independence referendums.
The rationale behind AfD’s comment was to liken the EU’s ignoring of referendums from Russia-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine to the acceptance of similar votes in Mayotte, an island whose inhabitants have consistently expressed their desire to remain under French rule.
Marine Le Pen, the head of RN, was irate at these comments made by AfD. Visiting Mayotte at the time of this statement, she asserted that AfD would be better suited addressing issues within Germany itself, hinting at her intention to provide her associates with some geopolitical advice.
This incident is just the most recent example of the growing disconnect between RN and AfD. Their common stance against immigration united them as allies in the European Parliament. However, there is increasing distance between them in the leadup to the forthcoming EU elections. Senior RN members, such as Renaud Labaye, secretary general of RN’s parliamentary group, have vocalised possible severance of ties with AfD, due to concerns of excessive radicalisation.
Le Pen has been actively striving for a decade to ‘detoxify’ the right-wing political movement established by her father, thus gearing it towards gaining the presidency. On the other hand, AfD has visibly moved further to the right. According to Simon Hix, a political scientist at the European University Institute based in Florence, the legitimacy of populist right-wing parties in Europe may be jeopardised if the AfD continues to be radical. In the opinion of these parties, being linked with AfD is becoming akin to handling a toxic goblet.
In her campaign strategy, Le Pen has opted for a complete rebranding of her party, previously known as the Front National, along with a focus on the working class, and an abandonment of the concept of a French EU exit. This approach seemed to resonate with voters, as evidenced by the RN’s record-breaking 88 parliamentary seats in the 2022 election. However, despite this success, she remains unsuccessful in her pursuit of the presidency, having lost three times.
The AfD, in contrast, came into existence in 2013, led by economists critical of the Eurozone bailouts. The party now finds itself under the influence of ethno-nationalists advocating for Germany’s EU exit. The party is also embroiled in controversy. An AfD MEP, Maximilian Krah’s staff member was recently arrested on suspicion of Chinese intelligence involvement. Krah had previously upset party members by endorsing Le Pen’s competitor, Éric Zemmour, in the previous French presidential election. The controversy continued when he employed a staff member previously dismissed by the RN due to anti-Semitic photographic content. Despite such issues, he remains AfD’s primary candidate for EU elections.
On the candidate list, second to Krah, is Petr Bystron, who finds himself in a difficult situation. Recent enquiries have been directed towards him for allegedly accepting money from a Pro-Kremlin oligarch operating a Russian interference scheme in Europe. An allegation he has denied.
Both RN and AfD are existing members of the far-right EU parliamentary group named “Identity and Democracy”. However, some political commentators predict possible changes post-election.
One ex-senior AfD officer opined, “Marine Le Pen aspires to be the French president, and she stands a good chance in 2027. Why would she tie herself down with the baggage of German neo-Nazis?”
RN’s discomfort with AfD heightened in January following the revelation that AfD MPs had met with a prominent white supremacist to discuss the ‘remigration’ program, targeting individuals with immigrant backgrounds for deportation, including German passport holders. This was a bridge too far for the RN. “We are starkly different from AfD,” commented Le Pen.
Labaye has remarked that the party in France has been made more standardised, trying to eliminate needless provocations. Thus, having partners that get involved in such actions is not favourable. As for the upcoming election in June, RN politicians are not closing off any potential alliances. It is plausible that RN might emerge stronger with an impressive 15 point lead over Macron’s middle-ground list and their party’s stance has now elevated. The AfD might also benefit from the election, since they are presently gathering approximately 16% of the voting intention, which is an increase of five points as compared to the 2019 election results.
Alexandre Loubet, an RN MP heading the campaign expressed that the outcomes of the European Parliament are unknown. The balance of power and majorities are uncertain, hence nothing is off the table at this moment.
Breaking off now seems unavoidable to many. It’s been assumed by an AfD MEP that after the election, there will not be any room left for the AfD in the ID. This might consequently trigger a wide-ranging reorganisation within far-right parties. It’s been speculated by Hix that Le Pen might decide to exclude the AfD and instead try to collaborate with both Fidesz, which is currently unassociated and managed by Viktor Orban, the Hungarian PM, and the preceding ruling party of Poland – Law and Justice, which is at present a part of another group.
The AfD might then be left alienated, with Hix suggesting that parties like RN could use this to their advantage to distance themselves, highlighting themselves as moderate in contrast to the perceived extreme positions of the AfD. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.